Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

Banco De Sabadell (SAB SM): TSB, Fly in the Merger Ointment

EM Banks: Screening for Value and Resilience

BBVA: So Long, Sun-Belt – What Next; Buybacks and Potentially M&A?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-de-sabadell-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21295:1" rel="noopener">Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)</a> have broken off merger discussions</li>
<li>BBVA management can potentially deliver shareholder value through a potential share buyback, but plans o redeploy surplus capital in its core EM markets could increase perceived risk and limit the size of the buyback</li>
<li>Sabadell’s intentions to deliver improved returns, on a stand-alone basis, are, in our view, challenged by its lack of scale, the negative interest rate climate, as well as the TSB drag</li>
<li>Even after today’s sharp fall in the Sabadell share price, we would recommend a short on Sabadell shares – with no M&amp;A premium, Sabadell’s PBV ratio could fall back to close to 0.10x</li>
<li>Risks to our bearish view on Sabadell include finding buyer for TSB in the near term, as well as the potential for another domestic merger with either Liberbank or Unicaja</li>
</ul>



Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)  and Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM) have broken off merger discussions
BBVA management can potentially deliver shareholder value through a potential share buyback, but plans o redeploy surplus capital in its core EM markets could increase perceived risk and limit the size of the buyback
Sabadell’s intentions to deliver improved returns, on a stand-alone basis, are, in our view, challenged by its lack of scale, the negative interest rate climate, as well as the TSB drag
Even after today’s sharp fall in the Sabadell share price, we would recommend a short on Sabadell shares – with no M&amp;A premium, Sabadell’s PBV ratio could fall back to close to 0.10x
Risks to our bearish view on Sabadell include finding buyer for TSB in the near term, as well as the potential for another domestic merger with either Liberbank or Unicaja


Merger Undone: Tougher Outlook for Sabadell, BBVA Plans Buybacks and EM M&A