European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

BBVA-Sabadell "Merger" Conversations, Deal Numbers

Merger Undone: Tougher Outlook for Sabadell, BBVA Plans Buybacks and EM M&A

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 6 May, the Board of Sabadell rejected the merger proposal as "it significantly undervalues its growth prospects and is not aligned with the interests of its customers and shareholders".</li>
<li>BBVA could take the offer directly to Sabadell shareholders, but a hostile offer seems extremely unlikely and there are no precedents in the Spanish banking sector.</li>
<li>I find it unlikely that both parties reach an agreement because the terms would likely be unfavourable for BBVA (premium 40%-50%). Market sentiment also suggests a low probability.</li>
</ul>


On 6 May, the Board of Sabadell rejected the merger proposal as "it significantly undervalues its growth prospects and is not aligned with the interests of its customers and shareholders".
BBVA could take the offer directly to Sabadell shareholders, but a hostile offer seems extremely unlikely and there are no precedents in the Spanish banking sector.
I find it unlikely that both parties reach an agreement because the terms would likely be unfavourable for BBVA (premium 40%-50%). Market sentiment also suggests a low probability.


Banco De Sabadell SA

Hostile or Not?