European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Play Communications - Iliad: Offer Announcement

Smartkarma Webinar | Top Trade Ideas in European Event-Driven

K P N - E Q T: Prospective Private Equity Bid

Event-Driven

<ul class="">
<li>On 10 September, Lorca Telecom Bidco SAU communicated to the CNMV that the offer had been accepted by more than 50% of the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/masmovil-ibercom-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29013:1" rel="noopener">Masmovil Ibercom (MAS SM)</a> (therefore meeting the minimum accepance condition).</li>
<li>On 11 September <a href="https://www.grupomasmovil.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/200731_Periodo-aceptacion_CNMV.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ended the acceptance period</a> of the takeover bid by Lorca Telecom Bidco SAU for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/masmovil-ibercom-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29013:1" rel="noopener">Masmovil Ibercom (MAS SM)</a> .</li>
<li>MásMóvil last closed at EUR 22.42
<ul>
<li>a gross spread of 0.35% to the takeover offer.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Using ten estimates, the mean target price on Capital IQ consensus is 25.5 per share.</li>
<li>Polygon sent a <a href="https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1232010/EUP1_Segunda_carta_CNMV_Masmovil_with_report_English.pdf?p=pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second letter</a> to the CNMV with valuation details backing its assertions and refuting PwC's valuation, on which the CNMV based its judgment that Lorca's bid was fair.
<ul>
<li>In a nutshell, regarding the price offered, Polygon has expressed its "complete disagreement" with the content and conclusions of the valuation report published as an annex to the brochure and issued by PwC on July 24.</li>
<li>Polygon believes that the PwC valuation is at least "seven or eight euros below a fair offer" (i.e. in the neighbourhood of EUR 30).</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>I believe that Polygon is going to fight this one. A EUR 3 per share improvement would mean additional spending by Lorca of EUR 394 mn.</li>
<li>According to the takeover law, investors have <strong>three months from the end of the acceptance period</strong> to request that the company buy its shares at the same price at which the offer was made.</li>
<li>While it makes complete sense to cash in the chips, and I guess most institutionals would have done so, staying long and holding for an improved offer (with a 15% upside) does not look a foolish option either.</li>
</ul>
<p>(Please, see timetable in the note)</p>


On 10 September, Lorca Telecom Bidco SAU communicated to the CNMV that the offer had been accepted by more than 50% of the shares of Masmovil Ibercom (MAS SM) (therefore meeting the minimum accepance condition).
On 11 September ended the acceptance period of the takeover bid by Lorca Telecom Bidco SAU for Masmovil Ibercom (MAS SM) .
MásMóvil last closed at EUR 22.42

a gross spread of 0.35% to the takeover offer.


Using ten estimates, the mean target price on Capital IQ consensus is 25.5 per share.
Polygon sent a second letter to the CNMV with valuation details backing its assertions and refuting PwC's valuation, on which the CNMV based its judgment that Lorca's bid was fair.

In a nutshell, regarding the price offered, Polygon has expressed its "complete disagreement" with the content and conclusions of the valuation report published as an annex to the brochure and issued by PwC on July 24.
Polygon believes that the PwC valuation is at least "seven or eight euros below a fair offer" (i.e. in the neighbourhood of EUR 30).


I believe that Polygon is going to fight this one. A EUR 3 per share improvement would mean additional spending by Lorca of EUR 394 mn.
According to the takeover law, investors have three months from the end of the acceptance period to request that the company buy its shares at the same price at which the offer was made.
While it makes complete sense to cash in the chips, and I guess most institutionals would have done so, staying long and holding for an improved offer (with a 15% upside) does not look a foolish option either.

(Please, see timetable in the note)

Masmovil Ibercom SA

MásMóvil: End of Acceptance Period