Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Equities and the Real Economy: Fed's COVID-19 Response Suggests Another Protracted Disconnection

Banking Systems Still Pose Risks to Post-Covid 19 Economic Recovery

Fed Shifts Focus to Heal US Financial System to Facilitate Escape from COVID-19 Induced Recession

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

Historically, low real interest rates have been associated with rising or high inflation rates. The Fed's shift to monitoring inflationary expectations in the 1980s subsequently produced secular erosion in real interest rates.Since the Great Recession, both real interest rates and inflation have fallen reflecting lower long-term potential growth, particularly in the US economy. Inflation risks in the US depend on whether aggregate demand persistently outstrips for a protracted period.Despite the unprecedented policy response by central banks and governments, aggregate supply will be higher than demand, thereby initially imparting powerful deflationary forces. Thereafter, the long-term inflationary implications will depend on how much damage has been done to aggregate supply and how much support governments are able to offer aggregate demand.Consumers are unlikely to fully switch spending in sectors affected by the lockdown to those segments that are unaffected, thereby suggesting higher savings. Aggregate demand will, therefore, be impacted and, consequently, lower inflationary risks will emerge.

Historically, low real interest rates have been associated with rising or high inflation rates. The Fed's shift to monitoring inflationary expectations in the 1980s subsequently produced secular erosion in real interest rates.Since the Great Recession, both real interest rates and inflation have fallen reflecting lower long-term potential growth, particularly in the US economy. Inflation risks in the US depend on whether aggregate demand persistently outstrips for a protracted period.Despite the unprecedented policy response by central banks and governments, aggregate supply will be higher than demand, thereby initially imparting powerful deflationary forces. Thereafter, the long-term inflationary implications will depend on how much damage has been done to aggregate supply and how much support governments are able to offer aggregate demand.Consumers are unlikely to fully switch spending in sectors affected by the lockdown to those segments that are unaffected, thereby suggesting higher savings. Aggregate demand will, therefore, be impacted and, consequently, lower inflationary risks will emerge.

Lower Negative Real Interest Rates and Fiscal Stimulus Won't Trigger Higher Inflation Any Time Soon