'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Summer Results & Revisions - Market Composite & Sectors - Third Down

🇯🇵 Japan • FA & SPE - Calling Bottoms and Tops

Readthrough to Japanese FA Sector from Capital's SK Hynix Block Sale

SK Hynix:  Fund Positioning Ahead of Results

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

Japan Consumer discretionary / Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/205/original/2019-11-03_13-09-55.png?1572754223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104205"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FIRST WAVE</strong> - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/206/original/2019-11-03_13-33-51.png?1572755646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104206"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/207/original/2019-11-03_13-44-57.png?1572756308" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>CALLING A BOTTOM?</strong> - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.</p><p><strong>Among the stocks mentioned below are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autobacs-seven-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2142:1" rel="noopener">Autobacs Seven (9832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-capital-partners-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10401:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP)</a>. </strong></p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsFIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. 
Source: Japan Analytics
CALLING A BOTTOM? - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.Among the stocks mentioned below are Autobacs Seven (9832 JP), Nomura Holdings (8604 JP), Monex (8698 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Fujitsu (6702 JP), Toshiba Tec (6588 JP), and M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP). 

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom