India Nifty Rally Stall Zone as Banks Tread Water

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> - India's free fall stems from the weekly MACD bear cycle that has been building bear divergence since early 2018 is now unleashing pend up sell pressure.The most powerful trend changing set ups are found in the weekly MACD contracting patterns. In this case for India, the choppy ascending wedge that formed from late 2018 until the high at 12,400 (where we went short) warned of upside momentum deterioration, slowing buy volume, distribution and signa of an over owned market.The break below 11,000 pattern support (rising wedge) triggered downside momentum and a confirmation of a trend change. Rising wedge formations have a 70% probability of breaking to the downside but when combined with macro bear divergence, odds increase to 82-85% and why we turned macro bearish at 12,400 and below 11,000.The bet is to turn from short to long in late March where we expect a capitulation low.USD/INR macro long bet has paid off but is moving into a new high zone that needs to align with a Nifty low.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) - India's free fall stems from the weekly MACD bear cycle that has been building bear divergence since early 2018 is now unleashing pend up sell pressure.The most powerful trend changing set ups are found in the weekly MACD contracting patterns. In this case for India, the choppy ascending wedge that formed from late 2018 until the high at 12,400 (where we went short) warned of upside momentum deterioration, slowing buy volume, distribution and signa of an over owned market.The break below 11,000 pattern support (rising wedge) triggered downside momentum and a confirmation of a trend change. Rising wedge formations have a 70% probability of breaking to the downside but when combined with macro bear divergence, odds increase to 82-85% and why we turned macro bearish at 12,400 and below 11,000.The bet is to turn from short to long in late March where we expect a capitulation low.USD/INR macro long bet has paid off but is moving into a new high zone that needs to align with a Nifty low. 

India Nifty Late March Cycle Low Ahead of April Squeeze - Macro Heavy