Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

Harmonic Drive – Margin Deterioration Hurts Even LT Story

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

Harmonic Drive: Nothing Harmonic About the Guidance

Harmonic Drive Channel Pivot and Buy Support

Harmonic Drive: Measuring the Potential Downside Risk

Robotics Earnings: Nabtesco and HDS Results Strong; Still No Reason to Own Fanuc

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> reported 1Q earnings on Friday with results surpassing consensus as the revenue decline was milder than expected, falling 29.1% YoY compared to 1H guidance which is for a 39.1% YoY decline. As a result, OP surprised to the upside at ¥1.5bn, which is above the company's full year guidance of ¥1.0bn. This drove a sharp rebound in the stock but we remain unconvinced about the short-term prospects. We discuss our reasoning below.</p>

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) reported 1Q earnings on Friday with results surpassing consensus as the revenue decline was milder than expected, falling 29.1% YoY compared to 1H guidance which is for a 39.1% YoY decline. As a result, OP surprised to the upside at ¥1.5bn, which is above the company's full year guidance of ¥1.0bn. This drove a sharp rebound in the stock but we remain unconvinced about the short-term prospects. We discuss our reasoning below.

Harmonic Drive Systems

Harmonic Drive: Not Out of the Woods