Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Consider the Competition

Nidec (6594 JP): Robot Gear Expansion to Put Pressure on HDS (6324 JP)

Nidec – Weakness Should Be Understood but Downside Risk at Earnings Remains

Harmonic Drive – 11% Share Price Drop on 137% Order Jump

Harmonic Drive – Recovery Coming Through but Will This Be Another Daifuku?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Harmonic Drive posted relatively good numbers in 3Q on account of strong SG&amp;A controls but neglected to raise guidance. </li>
<li>That looks conservative and backlog hit a new high, but valuations remain stretched. </li>
<li>Ultimately we still see significant risk for next FY and expect guidance to be significantly weaker than consensus expects.</li>
</ul>


Harmonic Drive posted relatively good numbers in 3Q on account of strong SG&amp;A controls but neglected to raise guidance. 
That looks conservative and backlog hit a new high, but valuations remain stretched. 
Ultimately we still see significant risk for next FY and expect guidance to be significantly weaker than consensus expects.


Harmonic Drive – Good 3Q But No Guidance Revision