Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Harmonic Drive – Good 3Q But No Guidance Revision

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Consider the Competition

Harmonic Drive – One Step Forward One Step Back

End of An Era: Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive Dissolve Their Alliance - Event Lost, Pressure On

Harmonic Drive – Recovery Coming Through but Will This Be Another Daifuku?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Harmonic Drive fell 10.7% today as revenue came in 1.6% below consensus and OP was 33% below consensus on increasing depreciation costs. Guidance was reasonable at ¥52bn in sales and ¥6.6bn in OP compared to consensus at ¥54bn and ¥8.1bn respectively. All-in-all not a particularly surprising set of results given margins are depressed, but the improvement in the order trend was striking, which is why we were taken aback by the extreme reaction.</p>

Harmonic Drive fell 10.7% today as revenue came in 1.6% below consensus and OP was 33% below consensus on increasing depreciation costs. Guidance was reasonable at ¥52bn in sales and ¥6.6bn in OP compared to consensus at ¥54bn and ¥8.1bn respectively. All-in-all not a particularly surprising set of results given margins are depressed, but the improvement in the order trend was striking, which is why we were taken aback by the extreme reaction.

Harmonic Drive – 11% Share Price Drop on 137% Order Jump