Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Germany: Scholz-Led Traffic-Light Coalition to Redefine Left-Wing Pragmatism

Germany Finally Abandons Fiscal Austerity: Good for Growth, Bad for Bonds

Italy and Germany Are Taking the Eurozone Rapidly Toward Meltdown

Why Italy Must Default: It Is a Question of when Not If.

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Angela Merkel will retire from the Chancellorship with stratospheric poll numbers -- 80% of the electorate approving of her -- but without being able to ensure a smooth leadership succession for her own CDU/CSU alliance. The Social Democrats (SPD), who have been junior partners to the CDU/CSU for the past decade (and saw their vote share sink to an all-time low of 20.5% in 2017), emerged as narrow winners of this election  (25.7% of the vote) -- led by Olaf Schulz, the determinedly centrist Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister in Merkel's government. Schulz was expected to be less austere than his CSU predecessor, but barely loosened the fiscal purse-strings. The electorate appeared to have picked him primarily because he was more similar to Merkel (in competence, unflappability and fiscal conservatism) than the 2 leaders picked by the CDU.  Olaf Schulz, the winner of a plurality, was quick to call on the Greens (who saw a big jump to 14.8% of the vote) and the Liberals (FDP, with 11.5%) -- the 3 parties who had gained vote-share in the 2021 election -- to combine to create a coalition to honour the electoral outcome. The main challenge, however, will be the policy-incompatibility between the Greens and FDP, which thwarted their participation in a coalition with CDU/CSU after the 2017 election, obliging Merkel to go back to a grand coalition after 5 months' negotiations. The Greens and FDP have entered talks to chalk out a joint program (and cabinet allocation among them) before they approach Schulz (or Laschet) to form the national coalition. A Schulz-led coalition will be very similar to a Merkel-led one in terms of policy. However, on foreign policy, the environment and perhaps on immigration, it will likely be more left-wing than Merkel's governments. The Nordstrom 2 gas pipeline from Russia is likely to be opposed (or at least not supported enthusiastically) by the Greens. Whether the FDP or Greens have the key economic portfolios will be crucial to determining the degree of leftward tilt in policy: the FDP are Germany's liberals, usually advocating lower taxes, freer trade and reduced government intervention (including on climate change, an area where FDP and Greens will clash). The immediate impact will likely be a period of mild weakness for the Euro, given the uncertainty over the formation of a government in Germany (implying policy paralysis there) while the US embarks on "tapering", a gradual tightening of monetary conditions.

Angela Merkel will retire from the Chancellorship with stratospheric poll numbers -- 80% of the electorate approving of her -- but without being able to ensure a smooth leadership succession for her own CDU/CSU alliance. The Social Democrats (SPD), who have been junior partners to the CDU/CSU for the past decade (and saw their vote share sink to an all-time low of 20.5% in 2017), emerged as narrow winners of this election  (25.7% of the vote) -- led by Olaf Schulz, the determinedly centrist Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister in Merkel's government. Schulz was expected to be less austere than his CSU predecessor, but barely loosened the fiscal purse-strings. The electorate appeared to have picked him primarily because he was more similar to Merkel (in competence, unflappability and fiscal conservatism) than the 2 leaders picked by the CDU.  Olaf Schulz, the winner of a plurality, was quick to call on the Greens (who saw a big jump to 14.8% of the vote) and the Liberals (FDP, with 11.5%) -- the 3 parties who had gained vote-share in the 2021 election -- to combine to create a coalition to honour the electoral outcome. The main challenge, however, will be the policy-incompatibility between the Greens and FDP, which thwarted their participation in a coalition with CDU/CSU after the 2017 election, obliging Merkel to go back to a grand coalition after 5 months' negotiations. The Greens and FDP have entered talks to chalk out a joint program (and cabinet allocation among them) before they approach Schulz (or Laschet) to form the national coalition. A Schulz-led coalition will be very similar to a Merkel-led one in terms of policy. However, on foreign policy, the environment and perhaps on immigration, it will likely be more left-wing than Merkel's governments. The Nordstrom 2 gas pipeline from Russia is likely to be opposed (or at least not supported enthusiastically) by the Greens. Whether the FDP or Greens have the key economic portfolios will be crucial to determining the degree of leftward tilt in policy: the FDP are Germany's liberals, usually advocating lower taxes, freer trade and reduced government intervention (including on climate change, an area where FDP and Greens will clash). The immediate impact will likely be a period of mild weakness for the Euro, given the uncertainty over the formation of a government in Germany (implying policy paralysis there) while the US embarks on "tapering", a gradual tightening of monetary conditions. 

Germany Shifts to the Left Despite Retiring Merkel's Stratospheric Poll Numbers