Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Overweight German  value and quality stocks with a sector bias towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence. Avoid industrials and stay focussed on consumer related stocks.</li>
<li>New chancellor Mertz is under pressure to revitalise the economy and restore competitiveness to corporates. </li>
<li>His Agenda 2030 proposal to cut tax rates, reduce red-tape and deregulating together with a raising of the debt break would turnaround the economy. Expect Mertz to deliver on both.</li>
</ul>


Overweight German  value and quality stocks with a sector bias towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence. Avoid industrials and stay focussed on consumer related stocks.
New chancellor Mertz is under pressure to revitalise the economy and restore competitiveness to corporates. 
His Agenda 2030 proposal to cut tax rates, reduce red-tape and deregulating together with a raising of the debt break would turnaround the economy. Expect Mertz to deliver on both.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his "independence from America" requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar'25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts. </li>
<li>This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden's command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports. </li>
<li>If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports. </li>
</ul>


Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his "independence from America" requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar'25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts. 
This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden's command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports. 
If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports. 


Germany: Merz Call for 'independence from America' Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>On Dec. 4, Michel Barnier became only the second Prime Minister in French history to be ousted by a no-confidence vote.</li><li>Precisely one week later, the other major EU economy, Germany, submitted a motion of no-confidence of its own to be held on Dec. 16. What the heck is going on in Europe?!</li><li>The political chaos in France and Germany has the same root cause: a sluggish economy and insurmountable debt levels.</li></ul>

On Dec. 4, Michel Barnier became only the second Prime Minister in French history to be ousted by a no-confidence vote.Precisely one week later, the other major EU economy, Germany, submitted a motion of no-confidence of its own to be held on Dec. 16. What the heck is going on in Europe?!The political chaos in France and Germany has the same root cause: a sluggish economy and insurmountable debt levels.

Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>In Germany, “debt hawks” are slowly but surely waking up to the reality of their manufacturing industry being brought to its knees.</li><li>In Angela Merkel’s recent book, she pleads for a softer stance on the debt brake, and the political landscape in Germany seems to be softening on the “Schwarze Null” in general, with also the Buba member Nagel now advocating for a softer stance.</li><li>The future government would need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat to change the debt brake.</li></ul>

In Germany, “debt hawks” are slowly but surely waking up to the reality of their manufacturing industry being brought to its knees.In Angela Merkel’s recent book, she pleads for a softer stance on the debt brake, and the political landscape in Germany seems to be softening on the “Schwarze Null” in general, with also the Buba member Nagel now advocating for a softer stance.The future government would need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat to change the debt brake.

Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

<ul><li>Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.</li><li>The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.</li><li>With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.</li></ul>

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Germany

iShares MSCI Germany ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.

ishares msci germany etf (EWG US)

Germany Reaches Turning Point

German chancellor Mertz aims to boost economy with tax cuts, deregulation, and debt break, focusing on consumer-related stocks for growth.

Sharmila Whelan

Germany: Merz Call for 'independence from America' Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

Chancellor-elect Merz is mounting an improbable bid to achieve 'independence from America', as the requisite boost to defence/infra spending...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!

On Dec. 4, Michel Barnier became only the second Prime Minister in French history to be ousted by a no-confidence vote. Precisely one week later,...

Steno Research

Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

In Germany, “debt hawks” are slowly but surely waking up to the reality of their manufacturing industry being brought to its knees. In Angela...

Steno Research

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany. The three potential options...

Steno Research

Germany Reaches Turning Point

​German chancellor Mertz aims to boost economy with tax cuts, deregulation, and debt break, focusing on consumer-related stocks for growth.

Sharmila Whelan

Germany: Merz Call for 'independence from America' Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

​Chancellor-elect Merz is mounting an improbable bid to achieve 'independence from America', as the requisite boost to defence/infra spending...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!

On Dec. 4, Michel Barnier became only the second Prime Minister in French history to be ousted by a no-confidence vote. Precisely one week later,...

Steno Research

Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

In Germany, “debt hawks” are slowly but surely waking up to the reality of their manufacturing industry being brought to its knees. In Angela...

Steno Research

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany. The three potential options...

Steno Research

German chancellor Mertz aims to boost economy with tax cuts, deregulation, and debt break, focusing on consumer-related stocks for growth.

Chancellor-elect Merz is mounting an improbable bid to achieve 'independence from America', as the requisite boost to defence/infra spending...