Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind!</li><li>This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending and economic growth, focusing on the contrasting fiscal approaches of the US and Germany over the past 15 years—and their divergent GDP trajectories.</li><li>Recently, I set out to determine to what extent differing levels of government spending could explain these economic differences.</li></ul>

Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind!This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending and economic growth, focusing on the contrasting fiscal approaches of the US and Germany over the past 15 years—and their divergent GDP trajectories.Recently, I set out to determine to what extent differing levels of government spending could explain these economic differences.

RW-03-25: Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Germany and the US

<ul><li>Piaggio likely needs no introduction, as it is the company behind the iconic Vespa scooter.</li><li>In addition to Vespa, Piaggio owns the motorcycle brands Aprilia and Moto Guzzi, though approximately 50% of its revenue comes from scooter sales.</li><li>The strength of Piaggio's brands is reflected in its exceptional Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 30%.</li></ul>

Piaggio likely needs no introduction, as it is the company behind the iconic Vespa scooter.In addition to Vespa, Piaggio owns the motorcycle brands Aprilia and Moto Guzzi, though approximately 50% of its revenue comes from scooter sales.The strength of Piaggio's brands is reflected in its exceptional Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 30%.

My approach is to cover companies that fit my investment criteria and trade at prices with near term free cashflow yields that provide above-average returns. Usually my hurdle yield is 10%. This way I do not need the market to converge to my assessment of value to earn acceptable returns. You can find my investment criteria on my website.

Since good companies rarely come cheap, I predominantly look off the beaten paths at smaller companies in sectors or regions that face short-term headwinds and are therefore neglected by most investors.
Most of the times, I use a Discounted Cashflow Model (DCF) to value businesses. However, to limit the possibilities to mess with the model, I developed a variation of the DCF that uses less parameters at the cost of being less precise. I think the tradeoff is very worthwhile as I really take the words of a Sir Maynard Keynes to heart: It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

Lastly, to protect me from my own ignorance and stupidity, I always insist on a margin of safety.

Contrarian Cashflows
Fundamental Analyses
• Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 21/04/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 14/04/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

RW-03-25: Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Germany and the US

Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind! This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 07/04/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 31/03/25

Piaggio likely needs no introduction, as it is the company behind the iconic Vespa scooter. In addition to Vespa, Piaggio owns the motorcycle...

Contrarian Cashflows