Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

FX Dashboard: Russian Ruble and Colombian Peso Finally Benefiting from the Oil Rally

Rates 10y Dashboard: Russia to Deliver a Small Rate Hike Supporting the Steepener Recommendation

Is the Risk Premium High Enough in the Russian Ruble?

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Still Driving FX Returns?

FX Dashboard: US Dollar, Commodities, and EM Currencies

Alpha Bites: A 2s5s Steepener in Russia with Paying Bias

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<p>The ruble has lagged the rally in oil prices, which is partly by design following the establishment of the fiscal rule by the Russian authorities. While the benefit of the improvement of the current account should be felt over the medium term, the factors that have been relevant in the near term have been monetary policy and the risk of sanctions. Both of these are now behind in our view, indicating that the ruble should broadly be driven by its beta to EM FX in the near term.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

The ruble has lagged the rally in oil prices, which is partly by design following the establishment of the fiscal rule by the Russian authorities. While the benefit of the improvement of the current account should be felt over the medium term, the factors that have been relevant in the near term have been monetary policy and the risk of sanctions. Both of these are now behind in our view, indicating that the ruble should broadly be driven by its beta to EM FX in the near term.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Russian Ruble Is Lagging the Rally in Oil

RUB

FX Dashboard: Russian Ruble Is Lagging the Rally in Oil