Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Russia to Deliver a Small Rate Hike Supporting the Steepener Recommendation

Is the Risk Premium High Enough in the Russian Ruble?

Europe Support Breaks and USD/RUB Breaking Higher

FX Dashboard: Russian Ruble Is Lagging the Rally in Oil

FX Dashboard: US Dollar, Commodities, and EM Currencies

Rates 10y Dashboard: Take Profits on Colombia 2s5s Flattener

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<p>EM currencies have broadly lagged the rally in commodities this year, but there are signs that this may be changing for at least two of the oil currencies. The Russian ruble has been weighed down by the sanction risk and FX interventions to meet the fiscal rule. The Colombian peso, meanwhile, suffered on the back of the deteriorating fiscal balance and anti-government protests earlier this year. More recently, however, the correlation of both currencies with oil has picked up, leading to them outperforming the broad EM FX universe. If oil prices stay at a high level, it bodes well for both currencies.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

EM currencies have broadly lagged the rally in commodities this year, but there are signs that this may be changing for at least two of the oil currencies. The Russian ruble has been weighed down by the sanction risk and FX interventions to meet the fiscal rule. The Colombian peso, meanwhile, suffered on the back of the deteriorating fiscal balance and anti-government protests earlier this year. More recently, however, the correlation of both currencies with oil has picked up, leading to them outperforming the broad EM FX universe. If oil prices stay at a high level, it bodes well for both currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Russian Ruble and Colombian Peso Finally Benefiting from the Oil Rally