HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - The Special Dividend Beat Expectations, but Concerns Remain

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - 2025 Outlook May Remain Sluggish Despite the Ugly 2024 Results

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - The Business Model Has "Flaws"

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Due to the Pain Points, Investment Logic Changes

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) - The Story Behind The “Hostile Offer”

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fu Shou Yuan's performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.</li>
<li>If Fu Shou Yuan's dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don't think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.</li>
<li>Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.</li>
</ul>


Fu Shou Yuan's performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.
If Fu Shou Yuan's dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don't think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.
Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted