Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Fast Retailing: Additional 20% Downside Is Possible As Growth Breaks Down in Uniqlo International

Japan Consumer Discretionary:  Benefiting from China's Downfall

Down 24% From February Peak, But Still Has a Long Way to Go Before The Longs Get Back On Board

Fast Retailing: Trying to Pass Benefits of Cost Cutting to Customers

Consensus Continues to Course Correct While Fast Retailing Prepares to Report Q3

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Fast Retailing: Expensive but the Fundamentals for Long-Term Strong

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Japan’s largest apparel retailer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has endured a tough time over the last six months with the share price falling over 30% since peaking in February 2021. Fast Retailing shares have also failed to benefit from the recent stock market rally (resulting from Prime Minister Suga’s planned exit), which saw the benchmark Topix index rise around 10% during the last two weeks.We would expect the company’s 4QFY21 financial performance to remain weak, driven by disappointing domestic, China and other overseas market performance. This is mostly priced in the share price, and shares could start to rebound as Japan prepares to relax COVID restrictions in the near future following a successful vaccination campaign.Nevertheless, the risks rewards of buying Fast Retailing hangs in the balance as valuation multiples remain expensive even after a 30% decline in the share price.We would recommend closing any short positions as there is upside potential alongside the recovery of the domestic business.

Japan’s largest apparel retailer, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has endured a tough time over the last six months with the share price falling over 30% since peaking in February 2021. Fast Retailing shares have also failed to benefit from the recent stock market rally (resulting from Prime Minister Suga’s planned exit), which saw the benchmark Topix index rise around 10% during the last two weeks.We would expect the company’s 4QFY21 financial performance to remain weak, driven by disappointing domestic, China and other overseas market performance. This is mostly priced in the share price, and shares could start to rebound as Japan prepares to relax COVID restrictions in the near future following a successful vaccination campaign.Nevertheless, the risks rewards of buying Fast Retailing hangs in the balance as valuation multiples remain expensive even after a 30% decline in the share price.We would recommend closing any short positions as there is upside potential alongside the recovery of the domestic business.

Fast Retailing: Slowing China Demand Could Overwhelm the Domestic Market Rebound