bullish

EA: Disinflation Not Petering Out

301 Views20 Sep 2023 01:25
SUMMARY
  • The flash EA HICP inflation rate was marginally trimmed in August’s final print, causing it to round lower from 5.24%, while the ex-tobacco rate still printed at 5.2%.
  • Resurgent petrol prices prevented inflation from slowing by more, but powerful base effects in September should re-establish the steep trend decline.
  • Underlying inflation continues slowing to the extent that the monthly impulse is no longer significantly above target, which should spare the ECB from hiking again.
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Phil Rush
Chief Economist
Heteronomics
United KingdomMulti-AssetMacroeconomicsCross Asset Strategy
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