Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation failed to slow from 5.3% in August, shocking the consensus by 0.2pp in only the second upside surprise since Oct-22. However, it was only 4bps above our forecast.</li>
<li>Core pressures were broadly slightly stronger again but partially offset in our forecast by energy prices, although energy was probably the source of upside for the consensus.</li>
<li>Base effects remain set to drive a substantial slowing over the next two months. We still expect the ECB to hold rates while reserving the option to resume hiking.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation failed to slow from 5.3% in August, shocking the consensus by 0.2pp in only the second upside surprise since Oct-22. However, it was only 4bps above our forecast.
Core pressures were broadly slightly stronger again but partially offset in our forecast by energy prices, although energy was probably the source of upside for the consensus.
Base effects remain set to drive a substantial slowing over the next two months. We still expect the ECB to hold rates while reserving the option to resume hiking.


EA: Re-Fuelled Upside in Aug-23