Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Charting Beyond the Equity Market Headlines

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation plummeted by 1.4pp to 2.9% in Oct-23, 0.2pp beyond the consensus and within 0.1pp of our forecast again. But it is close to views prevailing since February.</li>
<li>The downside news concentrated on energy prices, as we expected, while the core matched forecasts by falling 0.3pp to 4.2%. National surprises broadly skewed lower.</li>
<li>We still expect a much smaller slowing in November before temporarily jumping into yearend. Recent downside news should encourage the ECB as it resists hiking again.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation plummeted by 1.4pp to 2.9% in Oct-23, 0.2pp beyond the consensus and within 0.1pp of our forecast again. But it is close to views prevailing since February.
The downside news concentrated on energy prices, as we expected, while the core matched forecasts by falling 0.3pp to 4.2%. National surprises broadly skewed lower.
We still expect a much smaller slowing in November before temporarily jumping into yearend. Recent downside news should encourage the ECB as it resists hiking again.


EA: Doves Near Inflation’s Trough