Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

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Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS)

<p>Those with a high level of unconverted CB balance would be among the early target groups by short sellers from May 3 in Korea.</p><p>Among the Short 350 (KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150), five names pop up as a heavy CB carrier with the conversion in progress.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 210px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Name"}'>Name</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 126.667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"CB balance (₩B)"}'>CB balance at FY2020 yearend (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 113.333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Time to expiration (days)"}'>Time to expiration (days)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Conversion"}'>Conversion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 210px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LG Display Co Ltd"}'>LG Display</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"034220"}'>034220</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 126.667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":813.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>813.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 113.333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1209}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>1,209</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19845}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩19,845</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 210px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hwaseung Enterprise Co Ltd"}'>Hwaseung Enterprise</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"241590"}'>241590</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 126.667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":150}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>150.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 113.333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10529}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>10,529</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":17542}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩17,542</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 210px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GS Engineering &amp; Construction Corp"}'>GS E&amp;C</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"006360"}'>006360</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 126.667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":77.8}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>77.8</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 113.333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":84}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>84</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":30239}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩30,239</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 210px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KIWOOM Securities Co., Ltd."}'>KIWOOM Securities</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"039490"}'>039490</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 126.667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":127.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>127.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 113.333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":423}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>423</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":105247}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩105,247</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 210px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Lotte Tour Development Co., Ltd."}'>Lotte Tour Dev</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"032350"}'>032350</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 126.667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71.04}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>71.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 113.333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":852}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>852</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":13850}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩13,850</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" style="width: 724.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>All of them enjoy a substantial gain in price, ranging from 2.90% to 52.12%. We should see a strong incentive in conversion, potentially resulting in an active shorting inflow.</p><p>CB balance (as of FY2020 yearend) * Delta (σ, 21 TD) should estimate potential shorting inflow, suggesting LG Display sitting at the top with ₩623.5B.</p><p>As a % of MC, Hwaseung Ent leads the pack at 13.15%.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Name"}'>Name</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 76.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'>Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% to conversion"}'>Price gain from the conversion</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Delta"}'>Delta (σ, 21 TD)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"CB balance*Delta (₩B)"}'>CB balance * Delta (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 74.1667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of MC"}'>% of MC</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LG Display Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>LG Display</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"034220"}' data-sheets-formula='="034220"'>034220</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 76.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":24900}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-1], "price")'>₩24,900</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.254724111866969}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[5])/R[0]C[5]">25.47%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7665}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000","3":1}'>0.7665</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":623.4711}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]*R[0]C[-1]"><strong>623.5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 74.1667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06997736544260075}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[-1]/(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "marketcap")/1000000000)'><strong>7.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hwaseung Enterprise Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Hwaseung Enterprise</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"241590"}' data-sheets-formula='="241590"'>241590</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 76.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-1], "price")'>₩18,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.02610876752935811}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[5])/R[0]C[5]">2.61%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9556}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000","3":1}'>0.9556</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":143.34}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]*R[0]C[-1]"><strong>143.3</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 74.1667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.13152657984811297}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[-1]/(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "marketcap")/1000000000)'><strong>13.15%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GS Engineering &amp; Construction Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>GS E&amp;C</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"006360"}' data-sheets-formula='="006360"'>006360</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 76.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":46000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-1], "price")'>₩46,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5212143258705645}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[5])/R[0]C[5]">52.12%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9874}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000","3":1}'>0.9874</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":76.81972}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]*R[0]C[-1]"><strong>76.8</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 74.1667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.01953417848061996}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[-1]/(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "marketcap")/1000000000)'><strong>1.95%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KIWOOM Securities Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>KIWOOM Securities</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"039490"}' data-sheets-formula='="039490"'>039490</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 76.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":135000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-1], "price")'>₩135,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2826968939732249}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[5])/R[0]C[5]">28.27%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000","3":1}'>0.8001</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":101.69271}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]*R[0]C[-1]"><strong>101.7</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 74.1667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.02893417796460866}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[-1]/(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "marketcap")/1000000000)'><strong>2.89%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Lotte Tour Development Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Lotte Tour Dev</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"032350"}' data-sheets-formula='="032350"'>032350</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 76.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18100}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-1], "price")'>₩18,100</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.6667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.30685920577617326}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[5])/R[0]C[5]">30.69%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7877}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000","3":1}'>0.7877</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 75.8333px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":55.958208}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]*R[0]C[-1]"><strong>56.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 74.1667px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.04462769831973416}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[-1]/(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "marketcap")/1000000000)'><strong>4.46%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" style="width: 722.5px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Those with a high level of unconverted CB balance would be among the early target groups by short sellers from May 3 in Korea.Among the Short 350 (KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150), five names pop up as a heavy CB carrier with the conversion in progress.









Name
Ticker
CB balance at FY2020 yearend (₩B)
Time to expiration (days)
Conversion


LG Display
034220
813.4
1,209
₩19,845


Hwaseung Enterprise
241590
150.0
10,529
₩17,542


GS E&amp;C
006360
77.8
84
₩30,239


KIWOOM Securities
039490
127.1
423
₩105,247


Lotte Tour Dev
032350
71.0
852
₩13,850

Source: DART

All of them enjoy a substantial gain in price, ranging from 2.90% to 52.12%. We should see a strong incentive in conversion, potentially resulting in an active shorting inflow.CB balance (as of FY2020 yearend) * Delta (σ, 21 TD) should estimate potential shorting inflow, suggesting LG Display sitting at the top with ₩623.5B.As a % of MC, Hwaseung Ent leads the pack at 13.15%.











Name
Ticker
Price
Price gain from the conversion
Delta (σ, 21 TD)
CB balance * Delta (₩B)
% of MC


LG Display
034220
₩24,900
25.47%
0.7665
623.5
7.00%


Hwaseung Enterprise
241590
₩18,000
2.61%
0.9556
143.3
13.15%


GS E&amp;C
006360
₩46,000
52.12%
0.9874
76.8
1.95%


KIWOOM Securities
039490
₩135,000
28.27%
0.8001
101.7
2.89%


Lotte Tour Dev
032350
₩18,100
30.69%
0.7877
56.0
4.46%

Source: DART



GS Engineering & Construction (006360 KS)

CB Balance X Delta (σ, 21 TD) Based Potential Shorting Inflow Among Korea Short 350