Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The current rate of expected Fed tightening will push the 2s10s yield curve to invert in late 2022 or early 2023, which would be a recession signal. </li>
<li>Our base-case scenario calls for a soft landing, which we assign a 60% probability, though the risk of a policy error and over-tightening is high.</li>
<li>As long as the Fed adopts a hawkish tone, growth expectations will be under pressure, which should be favourable to high-quality growth and unfavourable to value for their cyclical exposure.</li>
</ul>


The current rate of expected Fed tightening will push the 2s10s yield curve to invert in late 2022 or early 2023, which would be a recession signal. 
Our base-case scenario calls for a soft landing, which we assign a 60% probability, though the risk of a policy error and over-tightening is high.
As long as the Fed adopts a hawkish tone, growth expectations will be under pressure, which should be favourable to high-quality growth and unfavourable to value for their cyclical exposure.


Can the Fed Engineer a Soft Landing?