bearish

Avoiding Recession Raises All Rates

Phil has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
300 Views25 Apr 2023 23:30
SUMMARY
  • Global activity has remained remarkably resilient to recessionary forces. A prolonged path of stagnation may spare the acute pains of recession but carries other costs.
  • Persistent excess demand sustains inflationary pressures, including through second-round effects that are particularly pronounced in the UK.
  • Policy needs to stay tighter for longer, increasing the hysteresis potential as rates need to defer demand ever further into the future, opposite to the 2010s’ regime.
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Phil Rush
Chief Economist
Heteronomics
United KingdomMulti-AssetMacroeconomicsCross Asset Strategy
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