The Flash PMIs rebounded further away from recessionary levels in Feb-23. The resilient output is a tailwind to employment, excess inflation, and above-neutral rates.
Falling forward rates have proved premature, but their partial reversal has not yet broken bullish spirits. Expectations are too high, especially in the UK.
Low official inflation forecasts are conditional on conquering the inflation issue. More aggressive steps are needed to avoid defeat and its persistently high pressures.
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