Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

Central European Rates Are Among the Hardest Hit in EM

FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

Forint to Lag Even as the Hungarian Central Bank Raises the Pace of Rate Hikes

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Hungarian forint has underperformed due to the central bank (NBH) lagging peers in terms of the pace of rate hikes combined with the overheating risk from pre-election spending.</li>
<li>I expect HUF to make up some of the lag as the central bank is showing urgency now by raising the 1-week deposit rate by more than the benchmark rate.</li>
<li>The cross against Czech koruna makes sense because of its high correlation with the forint, especially in the context of the rising US dollar volatility arguing for limited beta exposure.</li>
</ul>


The Hungarian forint has underperformed due to the central bank (NBH) lagging peers in terms of the pace of rate hikes combined with the overheating risk from pre-election spending.
I expect HUF to make up some of the lag as the central bank is showing urgency now by raising the 1-week deposit rate by more than the benchmark rate.
The cross against Czech koruna makes sense because of its high correlation with the forint, especially in the context of the rising US dollar volatility arguing for limited beta exposure.


Alpha Bites: Long Hungarian Forint (HUF) Vs Short Czech Koruna (CZK)