Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Advantest (6857 JP): 20% Potential Downside

Advantest (6857 JP): High Gearing on the Downside

Advantest (6587) | Testing the Limits of AI

Advantest (6857 JP): Orders Unsustainable, Cyclical Risk High

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Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Advantest's share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.</li>
<li>Competitor Teradyne's results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%. </li>
<li>Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline. </li>
</ul>


Advantest's share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.
Competitor Teradyne's results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%. 
Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline. 


Advantest Corp

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound