Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment</li>
<li>March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth</li>
<li>We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint</li>
</ul>


ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment
March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao</li>
<li>The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability</li>
<li>BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation -- cheap!</li>
</ul>


A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao
The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability
BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation -- cheap!


Cancelling CaiNiao's IPO: What It Means for China's Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

<ul>
<li>On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'</li>
</ul>


On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise
We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise
We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'


J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea</li>
<li>Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn</li>
<li>US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?</li>
</ul>


A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea
Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn
US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?


Postage Fraud Case Update: Guilty Plea, Asset Forfeiture, & Restitution Set at a Whopping US$158 Mn!

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results</li>
<li>Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion</li>
<li>Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains</li>
</ul>


In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains


Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Domestic parcel volume slowed in March, and unit pricing remains under pressure. In addition, it appears the previously strong growth of Chinese X...

Tracking Traffic

Cancelling CaiNiao's IPO: What It Means for China's Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

In this insight we discuss the potential impact of Alibaba's decision not to list CaiNiao's shares, and offer a brief comment on the implied...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

We were pleasantly surprised to see J&T disclose Q124 operating stats so promptly, but we still wonder why the company hasn't explained its abrupt...

Tracking Traffic

Postage Fraud Case Update: Guilty Plea, Asset Forfeiture, & Restitution Set at a Whopping US$158 Mn!

A defendant in a China-US postage fraud case pled guilty, accepted US$150+ mn in asset forfeitures & restitution, and will help authorities expand...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

For us, the most urgent questions for Lalatech still revolve around its "incredible" progress on cost control and how the company will successfully...

Tracking Traffic

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