Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins</li>
<li>But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers</li>
<li>One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation</li>
</ul>


We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins
But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers
One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

<ul>
<li>EU, like the US, is considering lowering "<em>de minimis</em>" import threshold, soon</li>
<li>Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous</li>
<li>Threat of "<em>de minimis</em>" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO</li>
</ul>


EU, like the US, is considering lowering "de minimis" import threshold, soon
Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
Threat of "de minimis" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)</li>
<li>ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)</li>
<li>Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)
ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)
Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals</li>
<li>We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment</li>
<li>High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals
We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment
High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

In this insight we compare SF Holding's core EBITDA margins and EV / EBITDA valuation to peers in the Chinese and US express delivery segments.

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

SF Holding's exposure to China's domestic time-definite (air) express services segment is a positive differentiator that sets it apart from all of...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

In this insight we compare SF Holding's core EBITDA margins and EV / EBITDA valuation to peers in the Chinese and US express delivery segments.

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

​EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

SF Holding's exposure to China's domestic time-definite (air) express services segment is a positive differentiator that sets it apart from all of...

Tracking Traffic

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.