Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers</li>
<li>The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers</li>
<li>It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models </li>
</ul>


The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers
The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers
It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models 


The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed</li>
<li>We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth</li>
<li>FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers</li>
</ul>


Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed
We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth
FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers


Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）
BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>300750 SZ: CATL launches new commercial battery brand Tianxing to accelerate truck electrification and defend market share.（/）</li>
<li>9992 HK: Pop Mart's first LABUBU theme store opens in Bangkok with over RMB10 million in sales on the first day(+)</li>
<li>1810 HK : Huawei to launch three-hinge/ fold smartphone. (/)</li>
</ul>


300750 SZ: CATL launches new commercial battery brand Tianxing to accelerate truck electrification and defend market share.（/）
9992 HK: Pop Mart's first LABUBU theme store opens in Bangkok with over RMB10 million in sales on the first day(+)
1810 HK : Huawei to launch three-hinge/ fold smartphone. (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/9992 HK/1810 HK/1519 HK/ZTO US/SE US/ATAT US/981 HK/000977 CH

<ul>
<li>3690 HK:Kuaigou Dache (ride hailing) Lowers Commission Rate for Drivers in Tianjin to 10% (-)</li>
<li>TCOM US:Ctrip Introduces Family Card, Allowing Users to Book Trips for Their Elderly Parents (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; to Launch Ranked System Optimization: Points for Wins and Losses (+)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK:Kuaigou Dache (ride hailing) Lowers Commission Rate for Drivers in Tianjin to 10% (-)
TCOM US:Ctrip Introduces Family Card, Allowing Users to Book Trips for Their Elderly Parents (+)
700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; to Launch Ranked System Optimization: Points for Wins and Losses (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/9992 HK/1810 HK/1519 HK/ZTO US/SE US/ATAT US/981 HK/000977 CH

CATL launches new commercial battery brand Tianxing to drive truck electrification and protect market share. Pop Mart's LABUBU theme store in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

Kuaigou Dache lowers commission rate for drivers, Ctrip introduces Family Card for booking trips for elderly parents, Honor of Kings to launch...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/9992 HK/1810 HK/1519 HK/ZTO US/SE US/ATAT US/981 HK/000977 CH

​CATL launches new commercial battery brand Tianxing to drive truck electrification and protect market share. Pop Mart's LABUBU theme store in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

​Kuaigou Dache lowers commission rate for drivers, Ctrip introduces Family Card for booking trips for elderly parents, Honor of Kings to launch...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

CATL launches new commercial battery brand Tianxing to drive truck electrification and protect market share. Pop Mart's LABUBU theme store in...

Kuaigou Dache lowers commission rate for drivers, Ctrip introduces Family Card for booking trips for elderly parents, Honor of Kings to launch...