External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

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<ul><li>ZTO Express (ZTO)’s 4Q24 core net profit grew 11% YoY to RMB2.49bn, which is in line with our expectation.</li><li>The company targets to achieve full year parcel volume of 40.8-42.2bn (20-24% YoY growth), which is expected to outpace the industry growth of 15% (ZTO’s forecast).</li><li>This suggests a shift of strategy from profitability to volume growth, which we believe was due to the continuous decline in market share (18.8% in 4Q24, in terms of parcel volume). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO)’s 4Q24 core net profit grew 11% YoY to RMB2.49bn, which is in line with our expectation.The company targets to achieve full year parcel volume of 40.8-42.2bn (20-24% YoY growth), which is expected to outpace the industry growth of 15% (ZTO’s forecast).This suggests a shift of strategy from profitability to volume growth, which we believe was due to the continuous decline in market share (18.8% in 4Q24, in terms of parcel volume). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US/2057 HK) - Shifting Back to Volume Growth Strategy

<ul><li>ZTO Express (ZTO) EBIT grew 17% YoY to RMB2.8bn, which is in line with our expectation.</li><li>Reported net profit in 3Q24 grew only 1% YoY to RMB2.46bn, but this was largely due to one-off tax refunds in 3Q23.</li><li>Unit gross margin expanded 6.5% YoY to RMB0.38/parcel in 3Q24 amid industry price competition. ZTO revised down the full year parcel volume growth guidance to 11.6-12.3% (from 15-18% in Aug), which implies 7.5-10% growth in 4Q24E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO) EBIT grew 17% YoY to RMB2.8bn, which is in line with our expectation.Reported net profit in 3Q24 grew only 1% YoY to RMB2.46bn, but this was largely due to one-off tax refunds in 3Q23.Unit gross margin expanded 6.5% YoY to RMB0.38/parcel in 3Q24 amid industry price competition. ZTO revised down the full year parcel volume growth guidance to 11.6-12.3% (from 15-18% in Aug), which implies 7.5-10% growth in 4Q24E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) - Still Positive on Profitable Growth Strategy Despite Lower Volume Guidance

<ul><li>Core net profit grew 10% YoY. Reported net income in 2Q24 increased 3% YoY to RMB2.6bn, due to an impairment of RMB194mn (investment in Zhejiang Yizhan Network, a subsidiary of Cainiao Smart Logistics).</li><li>Excluding the one-off items, the adjusted net profit grew 10% YoY to RMB2.74bn.</li><li>The earnings growth was driven by (1) 10% YoY revenue growth, (2) a stable gross margin, and (3) an 82% YoY increase in net finance income.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Core net profit grew 10% YoY. Reported net income in 2Q24 increased 3% YoY to RMB2.6bn, due to an impairment of RMB194mn (investment in Zhejiang Yizhan Network, a subsidiary of Cainiao Smart Logistics).Excluding the one-off items, the adjusted net profit grew 10% YoY to RMB2.74bn.The earnings growth was driven by (1) 10% YoY revenue growth, (2) a stable gross margin, and (3) an 82% YoY increase in net finance income.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) - 2Q24 Core Earnings +10% with Stable Unit Margin

<ul><li>ZTO Express (ZTO) shifted the strategic focus to profitable growth in 1Q24, enabling it to deliver core net profit of RMB1.9bn (+23% YoY), representing 19% of our full-year forecast (run rate in 1Q23: 17.6%), which is better than our expectation. Looking forward, ZTO maintains the 15-18% parcel volume growth target in 2024E (same as previous guidance), despite higher industry growth forecast of 15-20% by the Company (previously 10%).</li><li>We like ZTO’s decisive change to profitable growth strategy. We continue to expect ZTO to generate free cash flow over the coming years to support its semi-annual dividend and buyback programs.</li><li>We have left our earnings forecast unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO) shifted the strategic focus to profitable growth in 1Q24, enabling it to deliver core net profit of RMB1.9bn (+23% YoY), representing 19% of our full-year forecast (run rate in 1Q23: 17.6%), which is better than our expectation. Looking forward, ZTO maintains the 15-18% parcel volume growth target in 2024E (same as previous guidance), despite higher industry growth forecast of 15-20% by the Company (previously 10%).We like ZTO’s decisive change to profitable growth strategy. We continue to expect ZTO to generate free cash flow over the coming years to support its semi-annual dividend and buyback programs.We have left our earnings forecast unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) - 1Q24 Core Earnings Beat Estimates

<ul><li>ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.</li><li>While the full-year parcel volume growth guidance of 20-24% YoY is maintained, the 1.5ppt market share gain target is removed as ZTO chose to avoid unprofitable volume amid the price competition.</li><li>While we continue to like ZTO’s strong execution and cost advantage, we are incrementally concerned about a potential transformation of price competition to price war. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.While the full-year parcel volume growth guidance of 20-24% YoY is maintained, the 1.5ppt market share gain target is removed as ZTO chose to avoid unprofitable volume amid the price competition.While we continue to like ZTO’s strong execution and cost advantage, we are incrementally concerned about a potential transformation of price competition to price war. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Good Execution but Rising Concerns on Price Competition

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

ZTO Express (ZTO US/2057 HK) - Shifting Back to Volume Growth Strategy

The company targets to achieve full year parcel volume of 40.8-42.2bn (20-24% YoY growth), which is expected to outpace the industry growth of 15%...

CMB International

ZTO Express (ZTO US) - Still Positive on Profitable Growth Strategy Despite Lower Volume Guidance

ZTO Express (ZTO) EBIT grew 17% YoY to RMB2.8bn, which is in line with our expectation. Reported net profit in 3Q24 grew only 1% YoY to RMB2.46bn

CMB International

ZTO Express (ZTO US) - 2Q24 Core Earnings +10% with Stable Unit Margin

ZTO Express (ZTO) continued its strategic focus on profitable growth in 2Q24. Core net profit in 2Q24 grew 10% YoY to RMB2.74bn, which is largely...

CMB International

ZTO Express (ZTO US) - 1Q24 Core Earnings Beat Estimates

Our TP for ZTO US/2057 HK is unchanged at US$38.50/HK$303, based on 24x 2024E P/E, equivalent to the historical average. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Good Execution but Rising Concerns on Price Competition

ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.

CMB International

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