Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>EU, like the US, is considering lowering "<em>de minimis</em>" import threshold, soon</li>
<li>Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous</li>
<li>Threat of "<em>de minimis</em>" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO</li>
</ul>


EU, like the US, is considering lowering "de minimis" import threshold, soon
Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
Threat of "de minimis" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)</li>
<li>ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)</li>
<li>Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)
ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)
Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>BABA US/9699 HK/DADA US /JD US /PDD US /ZTO US /1519 HK/3690 HK:Taobao/Tmall to open one-hour delivery option to merchants on its platform (+/+/+/-/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>NTES US: NetEase showcased their latest tactical shooter game, &lt;FragPunk&gt;, which is expected to launch in 2025.(+)</li>
<li>TCOM US/ATAT US : Travel consumption remained moderate during the Dragon Boat Festival.(-/-)</li>
</ul>


BABA US/9699 HK/DADA US /JD US /PDD US /ZTO US /1519 HK/3690 HK:Taobao/Tmall to open one-hour delivery option to merchants on its platform (+/+/+/-/-/-/-/-)
NTES US: NetEase showcased their latest tactical shooter game, &lt;FragPunk&gt;, which is expected to launch in 2025.(+)
TCOM US/ATAT US : Travel consumption remained moderate during the Dragon Boat Festival.(-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA /9699HK/DADA/JD/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/3690 HK/NTES/TCOM/ATAT

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies</li>
<li>CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity</li>
<li>In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies
CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity
In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express


CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA /9699HK/DADA/JD/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/3690 HK/NTES/TCOM/ATAT

Taobao/Tmall offers one-hour delivery to merchants, NetEase unveils new game FragPunk for 2025 launch, travel consumption during Dragon Boat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

​EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA /9699HK/DADA/JD/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/3690 HK/NTES/TCOM/ATAT

​Taobao/Tmall offers one-hour delivery to merchants, NetEase unveils new game FragPunk for 2025 launch, travel consumption during Dragon Boat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Taobao/Tmall offers one-hour delivery to merchants, NetEase unveils new game FragPunk for 2025 launch, travel consumption during Dragon Boat...