Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express </li>
<li>One reason could be Alibaba's transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao</li>
<li>For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins</li>
</ul>


Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express 
One reason could be Alibaba's transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao
For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins


Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023</li>
<li>We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024</li>
<li>Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights</li>
</ul>


In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights


Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK: Express Delivery Parcel Volume grows +48% YoY last week (+)</li>
<li>BABA/ MELI/ AMZN/ CPNG: AliExpress to introduce live streaming service abroad(+/-/-/-)</li>
<li>700.HK: Tencent's "Fight of the Golden Spatula" reach high highs with latest season content update (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK: Express Delivery Parcel Volume grows +48% YoY last week (+)
BABA/ MELI/ AMZN/ CPNG: AliExpress to introduce live streaming service abroad(+/-/-/-)
700.HK: Tencent's "Fight of the Golden Spatula" reach high highs with latest season content update (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance reported strong growth in Q3, from the right sources</li>
<li>Improved sales mix &amp; progress on expense control lifted core margins</li>
<li>With 22% upside to US$9.5 based on 21x PER, our high conviction pick</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance reported strong growth in Q3, from the right sources
Improved sales mix &amp; progress on expense control lifted core margins
With 22% upside to US$9.5 based on 21x PER, our high conviction pick


2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

<ul>
<li>October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level</li>
<li>STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others</li>
<li>We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins</li>
</ul>


October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level
STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others
We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

A loss of volume share to rival STO is adding to existing margin pressure at Yunda related to declining prices. This new dynamic could be related...

Tracking Traffic

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

In this insight readers can find a review of ECM and M&A activity in the Asian E-comm logistics space in 2023, plus a preview of potential...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK

Express delivery parcel volume grew by 48% YoY, AliExpress plans to introduce live streaming service abroad, and Tencent's "Fight of the Golden...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

In Q323 Full Truck Alliance reported strong revenue growth and impressive margin expansion compared to Q322. We believe the company's shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

A loss of volume share to rival STO is adding to existing margin pressure at Yunda related to declining prices. This new dynamic could be related...

Tracking Traffic

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

In this insight readers can find a review of ECM and M&A activity in the Asian E-comm logistics space in 2023, plus a preview of potential...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK

​Express delivery parcel volume grew by 48% YoY, AliExpress plans to introduce live streaming service abroad, and Tencent's "Fight of the Golden...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

In Q323 Full Truck Alliance reported strong revenue growth and impressive margin expansion compared to Q322. We believe the company's shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

Express delivery parcel volume grew by 48% YoY, AliExpress plans to introduce live streaming service abroad, and Tencent's "Fight of the Golden...