IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-2460-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162418" rel="noopener">CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> ended on 30 September.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).</li>
<li>If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 30 September.
We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).
If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Since the US started sanctioning Huawei in 2017, the China tech giant has maneuvered into many new fields. This time, its HIMA (Huawei Intelligent Mobility Alliance) is showing renewed momentum;</li>
<li>China is the greatest EV market in the world. But what is being masked in the robust growth is the divergence between BEV and PHEV, and Huawei's role in PHEV;</li>
<li>We expect the trend to continue as Chery, JAC and BAIC will launch their HIMA models in 2025. Most importantly, these vendors gain share in the mid-to-high price segments.</li>
</ul>


Since the US started sanctioning Huawei in 2017, the China tech giant has maneuvered into many new fields. This time, its HIMA (Huawei Intelligent Mobility Alliance) is showing renewed momentum;
China is the greatest EV market in the world. But what is being masked in the robust growth is the divergence between BEV and PHEV, and Huawei's role in PHEV;
We expect the trend to continue as Chery, JAC and BAIC will launch their HIMA models in 2025. Most importantly, these vendors gain share in the mid-to-high price segments.


From Huawei with Vengeance: Huawei Alliance Took Shares in Chinese EV

<ul>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)</li>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)</li>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)
AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)
AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and China Feihe (6186 HK) both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.


New World Development (17 HK) announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies Ltd. operates as an electric vehicles manufacturer. The Company develops and sells electric vehicles and other products. Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies markets its products throughout China.

Price Gauge
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Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH index in December. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round...

Brian Freitas

From Huawei with Vengeance: Huawei Alliance Took Shares in Chinese EV

Chinese EV market was driven mostly by PHEV in 2023-24 and will continue to be so in 2025. Huawei and partners are gaining share in PHEV in mid-to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China Feihe beat estmates for 2Q with higher profits and GW Motor substantially increased international sales of EV's. NWD will take a large asset...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH index in December. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round...

Brian Freitas

From Huawei with Vengeance: Huawei Alliance Took Shares in Chinese EV

Chinese EV market was driven mostly by PHEV in 2023-24 and will continue to be so in 2025. Huawei and partners are gaining share in PHEV in mid-to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

​Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China Feihe beat estmates for 2Q with higher profits and GW Motor substantially increased international sales of EV's. NWD will take a large asset...

David Mudd

Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...