Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of February, 14 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was 34%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February, 14 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was 34%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2023: Newcrest Mining, S.M Entertainment, Kanematsu, Nissin Electric

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-century-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16474:1" rel="noopener">New Century Resources (NCZ AU)</a>off-market Offer;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK)</a> 's Scheme; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a>'s MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: New Century Resources (NCZ AU)off-market Offer;AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK) 's Scheme; and Jiangnan (1366 HK)'s MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), and Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

<ul>
<li>There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal</li>
<li>Onr new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy (2686 HK)</a>'s Scheme.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a> also suspended pursuant to Hong Kong's Code on Takeovers and Mergers.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Onr new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week - AAG Energy (2686 HK)'s Scheme.  Jiangnan (1366 HK) also suspended pursuant to Hong Kong's Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
Key updates took place for: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), and O2Micro International (OIIM US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Jingnan, Newcrest, Yashili, Sembcorp, O2Micro, AAG

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect JOYY to deliver in-line 4Q22E, with rev -9% YoY (unchanged) and bottom line at US$2mn (margin diluted by Shopline loss).</li><li>As a typical soft season, we expect 1Q23E rev declined 6% QoQ, dragged by CNY &amp; Ramadan disruptions and competition pressure.</li><li>With rising paying users and Middle East stabilization, Bigo would resume growth in 2H23E, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect JOYY to deliver in-line 4Q22E, with rev -9% YoY (unchanged) and bottom line at US$2mn (margin diluted by Shopline loss).As a typical soft season, we expect 1Q23E rev declined 6% QoQ, dragged by CNY &amp; Ramadan disruptions and competition pressure.With rising paying users and Middle East stabilization, Bigo would resume growth in 2H23E, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JOYY Inc. (YY US) – Looking beyond 1Q23E soft seasonality

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. </li>
<li>We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. 
We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.
Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.


[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

China

JOYY Inc. operates a global social media platform. The Company offers platform which enables users to interact with each other in real time through online live media by creating, sharing, and enjoying a vast range of entertainment content and activities. JOYY serves customers in China.

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JOYY (YY US)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2023: Newcrest Mining, S.M Entertainment, Kanematsu, Nissin Electric

For the month of February, 14 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an announced deal size of ~US$23bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Jingnan, Newcrest, Yashili, Sembcorp, O2Micro, AAG

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

JOYY Inc. (YY US) – Looking beyond 1Q23E soft seasonality

We expect JOYY to deliver in-line 4Q22E, with rev -9% YoY (unchanged) and bottom line at US$2mn (margin diluted by Shopline loss).

CMB International

[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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