China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JOYY reported 4Q22 top line of US$ 605 mn, beat our est. by 3.2%, and GAAP net income turned negative mostly due to investment loss. </li>
<li>With limited catalyst for top line, increasing operating expense and content cost to cope with competition would put pressure on bottom line. </li>
<li>Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 23.7, implying 12.6X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


JOYY reported 4Q22 top line of US$ 605 mn, beat our est. by 3.2%, and GAAP net income turned negative mostly due to investment loss. 
With limited catalyst for top line, increasing operating expense and content cost to cope with competition would put pressure on bottom line. 
Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 23.7, implying 12.6X PE in 2023.


[YY US]: Maintain SELL for Cost Rebound and Competition

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s delisting Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s delisting Offer for Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB).
Key updates took place for AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>JOYY delivered upbeat 4Q22 results, with rev -9% YoY (in line) and bottom line at US$50mn (82% above consensus).</li><li>1Q23E rev guidance was 1% below consensus, on macro headwinds and soft seasonality.</li><li>We forecast rev -9% YoY/- 7% QoQ in 1Q23E (in which Bigo -5% QoQ), dragged by CNY &amp; Ramadan disruptions and competition pressure. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JOYY delivered upbeat 4Q22 results, with rev -9% YoY (in line) and bottom line at US$50mn (82% above consensus).1Q23E rev guidance was 1% below consensus, on macro headwinds and soft seasonality.We forecast rev -9% YoY/- 7% QoQ in 1Q23E (in which Bigo -5% QoQ), dragged by CNY &amp; Ramadan disruptions and competition pressure. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JOYY Inc. (YY US) – Moving into 2H23E recovery

<ul>
<li>There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG's non-binding Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG's non-binding Offer for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU).
Key updates took place for Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment

<ul>
<li>There are 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/slater-gordon-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:353:1" rel="noopener">Slater &amp; Gordon (SGH AU)</a>'s off-market Offer; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shl-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11571:1" rel="noopener">SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP)</a>'s MBO/LBO; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>'s MBO. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Slater &amp; Gordon (SGH AU)'s off-market Offer; SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP)'s MBO/LBO; and GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)'s MBO. 
Key updates took place for Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), and Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Slater & Gordon; SHL Japan, GK Goh, Nitro Software, Yashili

China

JOYY Inc. operates a global social media platform. The Company offers platform which enables users to interact with each other in real time through online live media by creating, sharing, and enjoying a vast range of entertainment content and activities. JOYY serves customers in China.

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JOYY (YY US)

[YY US]: Maintain SELL for Cost Rebound and Competition

With limited catalyst for top line, increasing operating expense and content cost to cope with competition would put pressure on bottom line....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

JOYY Inc. (YY US) – Moving into 2H23E recovery

JOYY delivered upbeat 4Q22 results, with rev -9% YoY (in line) and bottom line at US$50mn (82% above consensus). 1Q23E rev guidance was 1% below...

CMB International

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Slater & Gordon; SHL Japan, GK Goh, Nitro Software, Yashili

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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