Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>, which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241202/pdf/06c3wj280vb2r0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a merger, by way of  Scheme, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. </li>
<li>Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. </li>
</ul>



De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, has announced a merger, by way of  Scheme, with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. 
Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. 


Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The results for the March 2024 index rebal event for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.</li>
<li>There is one change for ASX 20, two changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>There are 14 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300 and while most of these are small-size flow names some of them have more than 15x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The results for the March 2024 index rebal event for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.
There is one change for ASX 20, two changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.
There are 14 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300 and while most of these are small-size flow names some of them have more than 15x ADV to trade.


Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rotation in to China Precious Metals stocks pushes ownership to record levels, bucking the trend of overall Materials sector decline.</li>
<li>Zijin Mining Group soars to new ownership highs, attracting funds such as RWC, Mirae and TT International over the course of 2023.</li>
<li>Second tier stocks showing signs of life, though remain lightly held among investors.</li>
</ul>


Rotation in to China Precious Metals stocks pushes ownership to record levels, bucking the trend of overall Materials sector decline.
Zijin Mining Group soars to new ownership highs, attracting funds such as RWC, Mirae and TT International over the course of 2023.
Second tier stocks showing signs of life, though remain lightly held among investors.


China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.</li>
<li>I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200 during the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Separately, there could also be one intra-review change for ASX 200 in February 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.
I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200 during the March 2024 index rebal event.
Separately, there could also be one intra-review change for ASX 200 in February 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

<ul>
<li>On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> inked a $US10bn+ "merger of equals" with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>, ostensibly forming the world's fifth largest lithium producer.</li>
<li>Allkem's Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem's board unanimously recommends the transaction. </li>
<li>This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. </li>
</ul>


On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ "merger of equals" with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world's fifth largest lithium producer.
Allkem's Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem's board unanimously recommends the transaction. 
This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. 


Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

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Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Terms are fair. The implied Offer price for De Grey is a lifetime high. If you can take down borrow cheaply on Northern Star, do so. Expect the...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

On average, the ADDs have 11x ADV to buy and DELs have 8x ADV to sell. The ADDs could outperform the DELs over the next two weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend

Rotation in to China Precious Metals stocks pushes ownership to record levels, bucking the trend of overall Materials sector decline.

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

I see 20+ ADDs/DELs in total across ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, and 300 in the run up to the March 2024 rebalance. Many names have multiple number of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

This looks done. Buy Livent (LTHM US). And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in days following.

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Terms are fair. The implied Offer price for De Grey is a lifetime high. If you can take down borrow cheaply on Northern Star, do so. Expect the...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

On average, the ADDs have 11x ADV to buy and DELs have 8x ADV to sell. The ADDs could outperform the DELs over the next two weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend

Rotation in to China Precious Metals stocks pushes ownership to record levels, bucking the trend of overall Materials sector decline.

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

I see 20+ ADDs/DELs in total across ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, and 300 in the run up to the March 2024 rebalance. Many names have multiple number of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

This looks done. Buy Livent (LTHM US). And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in days following.

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote