IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (1566215D CH)</a> is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huitongda-network-ipo-initiation-clicks-to-bricks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:63428" rel="noopener">Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks</a>, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   </li>
<li>For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. </li>
</ul>



Huitongda (1566215D CH) is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.
In Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   
For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. 


Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s decision to replace the long time CFO Maggie Wu doesn’t seem like a reason for investors to panic sell.</li>
<li>She will continue to serve the company as an executive director and continue to be involved in the business.</li>
<li>Also, the fact that she is replaced by her protégé, Toby Xu seems like an indication that the top management is still happy with how financials are handled.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s decision to replace the long time CFO Maggie Wu doesn’t seem like a reason for investors to panic sell.
She will continue to serve the company as an executive director and continue to be involved in the business.
Also, the fact that she is replaced by her protégé, Toby Xu seems like an indication that the top management is still happy with how financials are handled.


Alibaba Management Shake-Up: Long-Time CFO Maggie Wu Replaced, No Panicking Necessary

<ul>
<li>Nikkei reports that a high ranking CCP official has suggested that the platforms possessing personal data should return around 20-30% of the revenue generated to the common prosperity cause. </li>
<li>We expect big tech to lose competitiveness as the government takes control of the use of personal data. Meanwhile the Chinese economic slowdown is a double blow to big tech. </li>
<li>If remaining investors lose faith and exit, big tech can trade at around 1.0-1.5x price to book in the next few years.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei reports that a high ranking CCP official has suggested that the platforms possessing personal data should return around 20-30% of the revenue generated to the common prosperity cause. 
We expect big tech to lose competitiveness as the government takes control of the use of personal data. Meanwhile the Chinese economic slowdown is a double blow to big tech. 
If remaining investors lose faith and exit, big tech can trade at around 1.0-1.5x price to book in the next few years.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> shares dropped 11.1% yesterday on rather disappointing 2QFY22 earnings which saw the company’s operating profit tumble 32% YoY.</li>
<li>Driven by the ongoing regulatory pressure and the Chinese government’s push for common prosperity measures, the Core-Commerce segment's revenue growth and operating margins have fallen below the pre-COVID trend line.</li>
<li>Although the valuation multiples look cheap compared to history, there's a possibility for multiples to drop another 50%, especially if the regulatory environment remains the same.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK) shares dropped 11.1% yesterday on rather disappointing 2QFY22 earnings which saw the company’s operating profit tumble 32% YoY.
Driven by the ongoing regulatory pressure and the Chinese government’s push for common prosperity measures, the Core-Commerce segment's revenue growth and operating margins have fallen below the pre-COVID trend line.
Although the valuation multiples look cheap compared to history, there's a possibility for multiples to drop another 50%, especially if the regulatory environment remains the same.


Alibaba: The Commerce Segment Weakens Amidst Government Scrutiny

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). </li>
<li>Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). 
Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY


China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

Huitongda will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318m. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the...

Arun George

Alibaba Management Shake-Up: Long-Time CFO Maggie Wu Replaced, No Panicking Necessary

Maggie Wu is replaced by her protégé, Toby Xu. This seems like an indication that the top management is still happy with how financials are...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China Considering a Data Tax on Big Tech

Investors are starting to rethink their investments in the Chinese tech space and the idea that investors should avoid Chinese tech stocks amidst...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba: The Commerce Segment Weakens Amidst Government Scrutiny

Driven by the ongoing regulatory pressure and the Chinese government’s push for common prosperity measures, the Core-Commerce segment's revenue...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold

Our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). We continue to believe we have...

Vermilion Research

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