China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described</li>
<li>We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.</li>
</ul>


Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.


Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we highlighted which divisions could list and looked at some of the divisions in more detail. In this note, we will talk about the local operations.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In our previous notes, we highlighted which divisions could list and looked at some of the divisions in more detail. In this note, we will talk about the local operations.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 5 - An Early Look at Local Operations

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we highlighted which divisions could list and looked at some of the divisions in more detail. In this note, we will talk about the international operations.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In our previous notes, we highlighted which divisions could list and looked at some of the divisions in more detail. In this note, we will talk about the international operations.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 4 - An Early Look at International Operations

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>VIPS reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP operating profit, and non-GAAP net income 6.6%, 27%, and 31% vs. our est., and 5.6%, 20%, and 36% vs. cons.; </li>
<li>We expect VIPS profitability to remain steady given its relative immunity to competitor price competition, mainly due to its high apparel exposure, high member loyalty, and differentiated product sourcing strategy; </li>
<li>Given improving apparel demand and EPADS on share buy-backs, we maintain BUY and US$ 16.3 TP, implying 8.1x 2023 non-GAAP P/E.  </li>
</ul>


VIPS reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP operating profit, and non-GAAP net income 6.6%, 27%, and 31% vs. our est., and 5.6%, 20%, and 36% vs. cons.; 
We expect VIPS profitability to remain steady given its relative immunity to competitor price competition, mainly due to its high apparel exposure, high member loyalty, and differentiated product sourcing strategy; 
Given improving apparel demand and EPADS on share buy-backs, we maintain BUY and US$ 16.3 TP, implying 8.1x 2023 non-GAAP P/E.  


[Vipshop (VIPS US) Earnings Review]: Demand for Apparel Rising on Increased Social Activity

<ul>
<li>BILI/ 700 HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA</li>
<li>JD/ PDD/ BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy</li>
<li>BABA/PDD/JD/VIPS: Taobao cancels fees and adjusts algorithm for upcoming “Super Cost-effective Event”</li>
</ul>


BILI/ 700 HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA
JD/ PDD/ BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy
BABA/PDD/JD/VIPS: Taobao cancels fees and adjusts algorithm for upcoming “Super Cost-effective Event”


Baba/Pdd/Jd/Vips/BILI/700 HK/JDL: China TMT Update(Apr.24) - Taobao Cancels Fees for Promotion Event

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 5 - An Early Look at Local Operations

On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure. In those note we take an early...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 4 - An Early Look at International Operations

On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure. In this note, we take a look...

Sumeet Singh

Baba/Pdd/Jd/Vips/BILI/700 HK/JDL: China TMT Update(Apr.24) - Taobao Cancels Fees for Promotion Event

BILI/700HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA;JD/PDD/BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy; Taobao cancels fees for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 5 - An Early Look at Local Operations

On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure. In those note we take an early...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 4 - An Early Look at International Operations

On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure. In this note, we take a look...

Sumeet Singh

[Vipshop (VIPS US) Earnings Review]: Demand for Apparel Rising on Increased Social Activity

We expect VIPS profitability to remain steady given its relative immunity to competitor price competition, mainly due to its high apparel exposure,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Baba/Pdd/Jd/Vips/BILI/700 HK/JDL: China TMT Update(Apr.24) - Taobao Cancels Fees for Promotion Event

BILI/700HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA;JD/PDD/BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy; Taobao cancels fees for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute