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Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following a contraction in Chinese apparel sales since 3Q21, and similar negative GMV and product revenue growth for Vipshop, we have witnessed a recovery to growth since June.</li>
<li>Current sell-side forecasts are, however, still for a -10.8%y/y contraction in product revenue for Vipshop in 3Q22f, followed by a -4.4% contraction in 4Q22f which seems overly pessimistic.</li>
<li>Given the conservative nature of near-term top-line growth expectation, and management guidance, the probability for positive earnings surprise seems high.</li>
</ul>


Following a contraction in Chinese apparel sales since 3Q21, and similar negative GMV and product revenue growth for Vipshop, we have witnessed a recovery to growth since June.
Current sell-side forecasts are, however, still for a -10.8%y/y contraction in product revenue for Vipshop in 3Q22f, followed by a -4.4% contraction in 4Q22f which seems overly pessimistic.
Given the conservative nature of near-term top-line growth expectation, and management guidance, the probability for positive earnings surprise seems high.


Vipshop: Rebound in Chinese Apparel Sales Should Trump Conservative Management Guidance

Vipshop Holdings

Vipshop: Rebound in Chinese Apparel Sales Should Trump Conservative Management Guidance