Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR</a> are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.</li>
</ul>


We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK). 
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.

PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.


What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrenew-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">ATRenew (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China. It is listed in June 2021 at US$14 per ADS. </li>
<li>The shares are down 63% YTD largely due to the tech market sell-off. Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks.</li>
<li>The valuation is undemanding compared to a peer group of pre-owned marketplaces and global online retail marketplaces. It will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate.</li>
</ul>



ATRenew (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China. It is listed in June 2021 at US$14 per ADS. 
The shares are down 63% YTD largely due to the tech market sell-off. Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks.
The valuation is undemanding compared to a peer group of pre-owned marketplaces and global online retail marketplaces. It will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate.


ATRenew (RERE US): Pre-Owned Satisfaction

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vipshop reported C2Q24 revenue and profit were in-line vs. the street, but the mid-point of C3Q revenue guide missed by 8% due to soft apparel demand;</li>
<li>VIPS has been post growth for some time. However, its healthy cash flow ensures a 75% dividend payout ratio as promised by the company. </li>
<li>We cut our CY24 EPS estimate by 8.4% due to soft apparel demand, leading to a US$ 14.5 TP, but maintain BUY on a post-subsidy recovery. </li>
</ul>


Vipshop reported C2Q24 revenue and profit were in-line vs. the street, but the mid-point of C3Q revenue guide missed by 8% due to soft apparel demand;
VIPS has been post growth for some time. However, its healthy cash flow ensures a 75% dividend payout ratio as promised by the company. 
We cut our CY24 EPS estimate by 8.4% due to soft apparel demand, leading to a US$ 14.5 TP, but maintain BUY on a post-subsidy recovery. 


[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Buying for Dividend Yield and Cash Flow Yield

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.</li>
<li>With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.</li>
<li>Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.</li>
</ul>


The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.
With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.
Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.


Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

The escalating tariff wars have increased calls in the U.S for Chinese companies to be delisted. While there have been few mentions of an...

Brian Freitas

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

ATRenew (RERE US): Pre-Owned Satisfaction

Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks. The valuation remains undemanding.

Arun George

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Buying for Dividend Yield and Cash Flow Yield

Vipshop's revenue and profit in-line with expectations, but soft apparel demand impacts future revenue guidance. Analysts maintain BUY rating on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

In this insight, we analyse Vipshop’s growth outlook, referencing reported Chinese retail sales data, its margin progression, strong balance sheet,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

The escalating tariff wars have increased calls in the U.S for Chinese companies to be delisted. While there have been few mentions of an...

Brian Freitas

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

ATRenew (RERE US): Pre-Owned Satisfaction

Unlike most tech companies, ATRenew is starting to deliver growth with profits, cash generation and share buybacks. The valuation remains undemanding.

Arun George

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Buying for Dividend Yield and Cash Flow Yield

​Vipshop's revenue and profit in-line with expectations, but soft apparel demand impacts future revenue guidance. Analysts maintain BUY rating on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

In this insight, we analyse Vipshop’s growth outlook, referencing reported Chinese retail sales data, its margin progression, strong balance sheet,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Vipshop's revenue and profit in-line with expectations, but soft apparel demand impacts future revenue guidance. Analysts maintain BUY rating on...