Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.</li><li>Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.</li><li>But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.</li></ul>

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to firmer on the day to extend the DXY’s rebound back through the low 101 area where I had expected better resistance to corrections to emerge.</li><li>A weaker EUR is helping support the broader tone of what looks a more mixed USD on the session.</li><li>Among the majors, the NZD, MXN and JPY are strengthening whereas the EUR finds itself near the foot of the overnight performance league. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to firmer on the day to extend the DXY’s rebound back through the low 101 area where I had expected better resistance to corrections to emerge.A weaker EUR is helping support the broader tone of what looks a more mixed USD on the session.Among the majors, the NZD, MXN and JPY are strengthening whereas the EUR finds itself near the foot of the overnight performance league. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed as EUR Slides on Weak PMIs

<ul>
<li>CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.</li>
<li>Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.</li>
<li>The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.
Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.
The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday.</li><li>It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, but the result wasn’t as clear-cut as many expected.</li><li>Many analysts have pointed to a potential lengthy government formation process and painted this as really bad news for the Spanish economy – but is that really the case?</li></ul>

In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday.It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, but the result wasn’t as clear-cut as many expected.Many analysts have pointed to a potential lengthy government formation process and painted this as really bad news for the Spanish economy – but is that really the case?

Great Game: Is a Hung Parliament bad news for markets?

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed as EUR Slides on Weak PMIs

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to firmer on the day to extend the DXY’s rebound back through the low 101 area where I had expected...

Scotiabank

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the...

Scotiabank

Great Game: Is a Hung Parliament bad news for markets?

In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday. It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime...

Steno Research

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

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