Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour.</li>
<li>The right wing provocateur and nutjob Rasmus Paludan started the trend before he stood for the Danish Election in 2019 and since took his activites across the Sound to Sweden.</li>
<li>The burning of the Quran is obviously a huge affront to the global muslim population and was a major roadblock for Sweden’s entry into NATO.</li>
</ul>


We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour.
The right wing provocateur and nutjob Rasmus Paludan started the trend before he stood for the Danish Election in 2019 and since took his activites across the Sound to Sweden.
The burning of the Quran is obviously a huge affront to the global muslim population and was a major roadblock for Sweden’s entry into NATO.


Great Game: Book burnings and Ukrainian peace talks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is mixed to slightly lower in quiet trade overnight.</li><li>Stocks are trading in the green, mostly, while bond markets are weaker (rising yields prompted the BoJ to undertake some unscheduled 10Y bond buys earlier today) and major commodities are mixed.</li><li>It’s month -end which may liven things up a little in our session.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is mixed to slightly lower in quiet trade overnight.Stocks are trading in the green, mostly, while bond markets are weaker (rising yields prompted the BoJ to undertake some unscheduled 10Y bond buys earlier today) and major commodities are mixed.It’s month -end which may liven things up a little in our session.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily -USD Mixed into Month-End, Eyes on NFP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June.</li><li>Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5% y/y (BBG consensus: 5.4% y/y).Service inflation increased to 5.6% y/y in July from 5.4% y/y in June.</li><li>Not something the ECB wants to see as services prices are the most sensitive to wage growth and may be an indication that the labour market remains too tight.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June.Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5% y/y (BBG consensus: 5.4% y/y).Service inflation increased to 5.6% y/y in July from 5.4% y/y in June.Not something the ECB wants to see as services prices are the most sensitive to wage growth and may be an indication that the labour market remains too tight.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation: Higher service inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

<ul>
<li>The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the demand for getting credit.</li>
<li>The trends are interestingly slightly weaker in the US SLOOS survey, which is the first hint of a US Economy, which may surprise negatively 2-3 quarters ahead relatively to Europe.</li>
<li>Yes, I see a rate of change move from a very negative number to a slightly less negative number as a positive, as markets care about the rate of change and not nominal levels, even if it means that demand is still subdued.</li>
</ul>


The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the demand for getting credit.
The trends are interestingly slightly weaker in the US SLOOS survey, which is the first hint of a US Economy, which may surprise negatively 2-3 quarters ahead relatively to Europe.
Yes, I see a rate of change move from a very negative number to a slightly less negative number as a positive, as markets care about the rate of change and not nominal levels, even if it means that demand is still subdued.


Credit Watch: If you SLOOS you lose – the 5 best charts from the SLOOS survey

United States

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Great Game: Book burnings and Ukrainian peace talks

We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour. The right wing...

Steno Research

FX Daily -USD Mixed into Month-End, Eyes on NFP

The USD is mixed to slightly lower in quiet trade overnight. Stocks are trading in the green, mostly, while bond markets are weaker (rising yields...

Scotiabank

Euro-area flash inflation: Higher service inflation

Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June. Core inflation remained...

Nordea

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

Credit Watch: If you SLOOS you lose – the 5 best charts from the SLOOS survey

The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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