Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.</li><li>Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.</li><li>Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.</li></ul>

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

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Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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<ul>
<li>The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.</li>
<li>After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement. </li>
<li>After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral. </li>
</ul>


The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.
After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement. 
After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral. 


The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.</li><li>September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.</li><li>That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

<ul>
<li>This week’s Fed and ECB policy decisions resulted in as expected rate hikes in both cases.</li>
<li>The USD wobbled Wednesday even as the Fed tightened and left the door open to another move in September.</li>
<li>That raised the rather confusing (unlikely?) prospect of the Fed tightening at consecutive meetings again when inflationary pressures appear to be abating.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


This week’s Fed and ECB policy decisions resulted in as expected rate hikes in both cases.
The USD wobbled Wednesday even as the Fed tightened and left the door open to another move in September.
That raised the rather confusing (unlikely?) prospect of the Fed tightening at consecutive meetings again when inflationary pressures appear to be abating.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Squeeze May Extend in the Short Run

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Money Watch – Is money growth BACK?

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

A surprisingly hawkish tone of central bankers suggests the end of the tightening cycle is near, with positive implications for Equities and...

Jeroen Blokland

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Squeeze May Extend in the Short Run

This week’s Fed and ECB policy decisions resulted in as expected rate hikes in both cases. The USD wobbled Wednesday even as the Fed tightened and...

Scotiabank

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52-week Range

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