Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in commodity-intensive emerging markets.</li><li>They promptly felt the impact of rising prices on their domestic products.</li><li>We had also predicted that these same emerging markets would be the first to identify the subsequent disinflation wave we’ve observed in 2023.</li></ul>

The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in commodity-intensive emerging markets.They promptly felt the impact of rising prices on their domestic products.We had also predicted that these same emerging markets would be the first to identify the subsequent disinflation wave we’ve observed in 2023.

Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.</li>
<li>Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ </li>
<li>Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.</li>
</ul>


We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.
Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ 
Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.


Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.</li><li>Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.</li><li>Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.</li></ul>

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY.</li>
<li>Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.</li>
<li>The last reading marked the first acceleration in 13 months, followed a 3.0% in June 2023. </li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY.
Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.
The last reading marked the first acceleration in 13 months, followed a 3.0% in June 2023. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research - Weekly Report (August 15, 2023)

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity

The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in...

Steno Research

Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

Oil price shocks push inflation higher and favor Gold as an asset class, but unlike what many believe, are not bad news for Equities!

Jeroen Blokland

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the...

Steno Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research - Weekly Report (August 15, 2023)

US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM,...

BRI Danareksa Research

Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research