Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs</li>
<li>The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” </li>
<li>Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform</li>
</ul>


As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs
The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” 
Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Good evening from Europe! The quarterly refunding announcement is due on July 29, and it always holds the potential to spook duration markets and liquidity betas.</li><li>The release of the updated budget projections from the CBO in June garnered attention as they raised their budget deficit projections by around $400 billion compared to the winter projections in February.</li><li>Not all of these outlays are newsworthy for the US Treasury.</li></ul>

Good evening from Europe! The quarterly refunding announcement is due on July 29, and it always holds the potential to spook duration markets and liquidity betas.The release of the updated budget projections from the CBO in June garnered attention as they raised their budget deficit projections by around $400 billion compared to the winter projections in February.Not all of these outlays are newsworthy for the US Treasury.

Debt Watch: Will the US Treasury spook markets with issuance in the QRA again?

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Discrepancies between establishment and household job surveys highlight economic stress; full-time employment declines, indicating households remain stressed even as non-farm payrolls rise.</li>
<li>Subsequent bond yield movements, particularly the persistent inversion of the 30Y-2Y spread, reflect investor skepticism about long-term economic stability and delayed rate cuts.</li>
<li>Upcoming U.S. elections and this week's economic reports, including the May CPI and revised Federal Reserve projections, may push rate cut expectations even further ahead.</li>
</ul>


Discrepancies between establishment and household job surveys highlight economic stress; full-time employment declines, indicating households remain stressed even as non-farm payrolls rise.
Subsequent bond yield movements, particularly the persistent inversion of the 30Y-2Y spread, reflect investor skepticism about long-term economic stability and delayed rate cuts.
Upcoming U.S. elections and this week's economic reports, including the May CPI and revised Federal Reserve projections, may push rate cut expectations even further ahead.


Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Fed's decision to taper its balance sheet runoff has provided support to long-term treasuries, particularly 10-year notes, signaling a potential rise in demand and a move towards yield curve normalization.</li>
<li>Recent treasury auction results reflect a divergence in demand across maturities; long-term 10-year treasuries show weaker performance compared to strong showings in shorter 3-year and 5-year maturities.</li>
<li>Data-Dependent Fed is likely to be influenced by improving economic indicators, supporting a normalization of the yield curve. During normalization, the 10Y-2Y spread is the superior instrument for exposure. </li>
</ul>


Fed's decision to taper its balance sheet runoff has provided support to long-term treasuries, particularly 10-year notes, signaling a potential rise in demand and a move towards yield curve normalization.
Recent treasury auction results reflect a divergence in demand across maturities; long-term 10-year treasuries show weaker performance compared to strong showings in shorter 3-year and 5-year maturities.
Data-Dependent Fed is likely to be influenced by improving economic indicators, supporting a normalization of the yield curve. During normalization, the 10Y-2Y spread is the superior instrument for exposure. 


Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.</li><li>We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent return profile given the drawdowns seen across the asset universe.</li><li>We have been sitting on our hands due to the trickiness of timing the missiles flying back and forth in the Middle East and due to our lack of conviction that the timing is right to re-enter riskier bets.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent return profile given the drawdowns seen across the asset universe.We have been sitting on our hands due to the trickiness of timing the missiles flying back and forth in the Middle East and due to our lack of conviction that the timing is right to re-enter riskier bets.

US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

Debt Watch: Will the US Treasury spook markets with issuance in the QRA again?

Good evening from Europe! The quarterly refunding announcement is due on July 29, and it always holds the potential to spook duration markets and...

Steno Research

Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Mint Finance

Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

Fed's tapering decision boosts long-term treasuries, signaling potential yield curve normalization with stronger demand for 10-year notes.

Mint Finance

Portfolio Watch: Sitting on our hands

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch. We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent...

Steno Research

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

Debt Watch: Will the US Treasury spook markets with issuance in the QRA again?

Good evening from Europe! The quarterly refunding announcement is due on July 29, and it always holds the potential to spook duration markets and...

Steno Research

Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

​Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Mint Finance

Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

​Fed's tapering decision boosts long-term treasuries, signaling potential yield curve normalization with stronger demand for 10-year notes.

Mint Finance

Portfolio Watch: Sitting on our hands

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch. We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent...

Steno Research

Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Fed's tapering decision boosts long-term treasuries, signaling potential yield curve normalization with stronger demand for 10-year notes.