Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC &amp; Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax &amp; Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.</li>
<li>Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan's Geopolitical Shift</li>
<li>First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid</li>
</ul>


UMC &amp; Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax &amp; Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.
Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan's Geopolitical Shift
First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron</li>
<li>Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit
Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead


Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.</li>
<li>Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.</li>
<li>Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.
Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.
Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.</li>
<li>LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.</li>
<li>Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.</li>
</ul>


Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.
LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.
Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.


Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

Powertech Technology Inc. tests, packages, and assembles integrated circuits (ICS).  The Company's products and services include memory product test and various kinds of IC package services, such as thin small-outline package (TSOP) services.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

MKS Instruments, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies instruments and components used to control and analyze gases in semiconductor manufacturing and similar industrial manufacturing processes. The Company's products are used to manufacture flat panel displays, magnetic and optical storage devices and media, solar cells, fiber optic cables, and diamond thin films.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

JCET Group Co., Ltd. operates in the semiconductor industry.  The Company's products include discrete devices and integrated circuits.  Through its subsidiaries, Jiangsu Changjiang also manufactures signal lamps used in industrial equipment and anti-theft door systems for consumer use.

Onto Innovation Inc. provides process control solutions and inspection systems. The Company offers solutions which primarily used in the fabrication of semiconductors and other solid-state devices, as well as industrial and scientific applications. Onto Innovation serves customers in the United States.

Amkor Technology, Inc. provides semiconductor packaging and test services.  The Company offers deep submicron wafer fabrication, wafer probe testing, integrated circuit packaging assembly and design, final testing, reliability testing, burn-in, and electrical characterization.

Qorvo Inc, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of high performance analog and mixed signal integrated circuits for the communications markets. The Company's products are used for wireless communications applications such as cellular and PCS, cordless telephony, wireless LANs, industrial radios, wireless security and remote meter reading.

Entegris Inc. provides materials management products and services to the microelectronics industry on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides products such as wafer shippers, wafer transport and process carriers, pods, and work-in-process boxes.  Entegris also provides chemical delivery products such as valves, fittings, tubing, pipe, and containers.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

Key Taiwan results ahead include Mediatek, UMC, Realtek, Novatek, and Himax. Taiwan AI names have been flying lately while Novatek and Himax have...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

Key Taiwan results ahead include Mediatek, UMC, Realtek, Novatek, and Himax. Taiwan AI names have been flying lately while Novatek and Himax have...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

​A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...