Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.</li>
<li>Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.  </li>
<li>UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.</li>
</ul>


Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.
Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.  
UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.</li>
<li>
Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.</li>
</ul>



UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Intel Corp (INTC US) 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.

Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.


UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.  </li>
<li>The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027</li>
<li>Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.</li>
</ul>


1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.  
The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027
Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.


UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.</li>
<li>The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. </li>
<li>UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.
The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. 
UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. 


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a>, which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  </li>
<li>If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  </li>
</ul>


Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus

UMC sees record low ownership levels as major EM funds exit the stock, leaving few investors with a meaningful stake. Sentiment has never been lower.

Steven Holden

UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

UMC: 1Q miss, strong 2Q guidance but low visibility into 2H. JV with Intel for 12nm progressing well with strong demand for 2027. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus

UMC sees record low ownership levels as major EM funds exit the stock, leaving few investors with a meaningful stake. Sentiment has never been lower.

Steven Holden

UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

​UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

UMC: 1Q miss, strong 2Q guidance but low visibility into 2H. JV with Intel for 12nm progressing well with strong demand for 2027. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

​UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

​Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.