Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

USD is moving into more extreme oversold readings as the DXY meets our downside target of 90.50/sub 90 that sets the stage for a USD tactical low at a time when we find the equity rally in Asia frothy and overbought. Pinpointing a USD low is our focus that will front run an equity peak and commence a pullback cycle in Asia.

USD is moving into more extreme oversold readings as the DXY meets our downside target of 90.50/sub 90 that sets the stage for a USD tactical low at a time when we find the equity rally in Asia frothy and overbought. Pinpointing a USD low is our focus that will front run an equity peak and commence a pullback cycle in Asia.

Dollar Asia Oversold with Turn Risk Signals

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

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<li>
Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar</li>
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Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers</li>
<li>
Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar</li>
<li>
5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€</li>
</ul>



Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar

Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers

Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar

5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€


2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. In this report, we...

Vermilion Research

Mid December Equity Peak

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with some tailwinds for the US into the next key cycle timeline. USD near a cycle low expected...

Thomas Schroeder

Dollar Asia Oversold with Turn Risk Signals

USD in Asia is moving into extreme oversold readings as the DXY meets our downside target that sets the stage for a USD tactical low to front run...

Thomas Schroeder

2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

Capital flows drive currencies and capital is beginning to quit the US. The shadow that looms over the US dollar is the whopping US$5-6 trillion...

Michael J. Howell

U.S. Equity Strategy: Remain Bullish

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight...

Vermilion Research

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