Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Financial conditions are extraordinarily easy, but the topic of tighter financial conditions has been trending in our media analytics</li>
<li>Just as the market momentarily reconsidered a "Goldilocks" macro view with yields falling back to 1.11%, the Biden stimulus package was unveiled to mixed reviews, weighing down on sentiment with higher minimum wage plans and hints of tax hikes highlighting a more pronounced progressive agenda</li>
<li>Our data sees a resurgence in media preoccupation with the Wall Street vs. Main Street disconnect, emphasizing pressure for more equitable support to households; but data supports the notion of broadly rebounding consumer spending in H2 across multiple income segments</li>
<li>We believe Biden was not expected to incorporate the minimum wage proposal into a stimulus package at this time, based on our analytics</li>
<li>Underlying macro recovery is unlikely to be derailed by today's surprises, but recent concerns on future tightening of financial conditions are now joined by worries on the cost of fiscal stimulus vis-a-vis wealth redistribution under the new administration</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Financial conditions are extraordinarily easy, but the topic of tighter financial conditions has been trending in our media analytics
Just as the market momentarily reconsidered a "Goldilocks" macro view with yields falling back to 1.11%, the Biden stimulus package was unveiled to mixed reviews, weighing down on sentiment with higher minimum wage plans and hints of tax hikes highlighting a more pronounced progressive agenda
Our data sees a resurgence in media preoccupation with the Wall Street vs. Main Street disconnect, emphasizing pressure for more equitable support to households; but data supports the notion of broadly rebounding consumer spending in H2 across multiple income segments
We believe Biden was not expected to incorporate the minimum wage proposal into a stimulus package at this time, based on our analytics
Underlying macro recovery is unlikely to be derailed by today's surprises, but recent concerns on future tightening of financial conditions are now joined by worries on the cost of fiscal stimulus vis-a-vis wealth redistribution under the new administration
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Financial Conditions, Wall Vs. Main & Biden Stimulus Via Text-Mining

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018</li>
<li>This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"</li>
<li>Some in the financial media (i.e. <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/fed-s-taper-talk-directed-at-bitcoin-and-tesla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin</li>
<li>In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  </li>
<li>In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes</li>
<li>As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018
This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"
Some in the financial media (i.e. Bloomberg) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin
In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  
In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes
As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We have been buying the USD versus weaker Asian FX (INR, THB and KRW) and now seeing a low in the USD/SGD for a broader USD rally from the DXY 89 region that is touted to front run a January risk event for equities (mid to late Jan).Euro's rising wedge along with USD bull divergence sets up a good USD rally sequence even if it is correction and will take USD bulls by surprise given the crowded USD short positioning. EM FX is vulnerable at this juncture will moves unfolding in  BRL and ZAR with TRY due for a low and strong USD move.

We have been buying the USD versus weaker Asian FX (INR, THB and KRW) and now seeing a low in the USD/SGD for a broader USD rally from the DXY 89 region that is touted to front run a January risk event for equities (mid to late Jan).Euro's rising wedge along with USD bull divergence sets up a good USD rally sequence even if it is correction and will take USD bulls by surprise given the crowded USD short positioning. EM FX is vulnerable at this juncture will moves unfolding in  BRL and ZAR with TRY due for a low and strong USD move.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

With the output gap closing, and a big US$900 billion fiscal stimulus on the way, the 24% YoY pace of M2 growth is bound to push core PCE inflation above 2% YoY by March 2021. The FOMC will be obliged to cut back on its promise of US$120 billion of monthly asset purchases by April, and to actually raise the Fed Funds rate by mid-2021. We consequently expect a dollar rally in 2021, and a sell-off in risk assets (including equities) by 2Q 2021. US money supply (M2) has plateaued at 23-25% YoY growth in the past half year (far faster than the peak in M2 growth at 10.4% YoY in Jan 2009 during the GFC). Despite a wide output gap (10% of potential GDP in 2Q 2020, and 3.5% in 3Q 2020), core PCE inflation was only slightly lower in July-November 2020 (1.3-1.6% YoY) than in the last two pre-Covid months (1.7-1.8% YoY in Jan-Feb 2020). With the output gap set to close in the current quarter, as indicated by the current strength of ISM's PMIs for both manufacturing and services, the surging pace of M2 growth is likely to begin generating over 2% core PCE inflation by March 2021.The FOMC has repeated that it will allow core PCE inflation to "moderately" exceed 2% for a time (to offset the long periods below 2% YoY) before raising the Fed Funds rate. However, its latest statement also says the FOMC is "prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals". With ISM new orders pointing to a stronger US economy in 1H 2021, Congress has just approved a US$900 billion fiscal stimulus to further turbo-charge the economy (and provide support to individuals' and SMEs' ability to consume and invest). Although the unemployment rate will still be 5.5% in March 2021, employment is unlikely to rise substantially more (given the productivity-enhancing impact of work-from-home, which will permanently reduce resource use across the economy). Consequently, it will be impossible for the FOMC to keep its promise to purchase US$120 billion of assets monthly after March 2021, by which time core PCE inflation will be pushing past 2% YoY.By April 2021, we expect the Fed to be obliged to considerably reduce the size of its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, and to raise the Fed Funds rate by June 2021. The failure to do so will cause inflation to rise past 3% YoY amid a closed output gap and surging economy. In the intervening period, the yield curve will steepen further, but equities will sell-off by March 2021 as markets turn increasingly risk-averse amid rising signs of inflation (and higher inflationary expectations). We would recommend taking profits on global equities by end-2020, and switching to a more defensive asset allocation in 1Q 2021. Banks, however, will be an exception worth holding onto amid a steepening yield curve.

With the output gap closing, and a big US$900 billion fiscal stimulus on the way, the 24% YoY pace of M2 growth is bound to push core PCE inflation above 2% YoY by March 2021. The FOMC will be obliged to cut back on its promise of US$120 billion of monthly asset purchases by April, and to actually raise the Fed Funds rate by mid-2021. We consequently expect a dollar rally in 2021, and a sell-off in risk assets (including equities) by 2Q 2021. US money supply (M2) has plateaued at 23-25% YoY growth in the past half year (far faster than the peak in M2 growth at 10.4% YoY in Jan 2009 during the GFC). Despite a wide output gap (10% of potential GDP in 2Q 2020, and 3.5% in 3Q 2020), core PCE inflation was only slightly lower in July-November 2020 (1.3-1.6% YoY) than in the last two pre-Covid months (1.7-1.8% YoY in Jan-Feb 2020). With the output gap set to close in the current quarter, as indicated by the current strength of ISM's PMIs for both manufacturing and services, the surging pace of M2 growth is likely to begin generating over 2% core PCE inflation by March 2021.The FOMC has repeated that it will allow core PCE inflation to "moderately" exceed 2% for a time (to offset the long periods below 2% YoY) before raising the Fed Funds rate. However, its latest statement also says the FOMC is "prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals". With ISM new orders pointing to a stronger US economy in 1H 2021, Congress has just approved a US$900 billion fiscal stimulus to further turbo-charge the economy (and provide support to individuals' and SMEs' ability to consume and invest). Although the unemployment rate will still be 5.5% in March 2021, employment is unlikely to rise substantially more (given the productivity-enhancing impact of work-from-home, which will permanently reduce resource use across the economy). Consequently, it will be impossible for the FOMC to keep its promise to purchase US$120 billion of assets monthly after March 2021, by which time core PCE inflation will be pushing past 2% YoY.By April 2021, we expect the Fed to be obliged to considerably reduce the size of its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, and to raise the Fed Funds rate by June 2021. The failure to do so will cause inflation to rise past 3% YoY amid a closed output gap and surging economy. In the intervening period, the yield curve will steepen further, but equities will sell-off by March 2021 as markets turn increasingly risk-averse amid rising signs of inflation (and higher inflationary expectations). We would recommend taking profits on global equities by end-2020, and switching to a more defensive asset allocation in 1Q 2021. Banks, however, will be an exception worth holding onto amid a steepening yield curve. 

2021 to Mark the Return of Inflation: Fed Hike by Mid-Year Implies Risk-Off by 2Q/21

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

TMI Snapshot: Financial Conditions, Wall Vs. Main & Biden Stimulus Via Text-Mining

Worries on tightening financial conditions are now joined by concerns on the costs of fiscal stimulus following the unveiling of Biden's plan; but...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

Talk of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation has surged 3x STDEVs, the most since 2018. Our data suggests this has more to do with the...

Elan Gore

USD Bull Cycle to Inflect Risk Asia

We have been buying the USD versus weaker Asian FX and now seeing a low in the USD/SGD. DXY 89 low/rally touted to front run a January risk event...

Thomas Schroeder

2021 to Mark the Return of Inflation: Fed Hike by Mid-Year Implies Risk-Off by 2Q/21

A closing output gap coupled with $900bn fiscal stimulus will make 2%+ inflation inevitable if M2 keeps growing 24%YoY. US monetary tightening will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

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