Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>DXY rise is gaining traction after the Euro broke below 1.18 trendline support per our fade call from 1.20 to 1.15. Used Euro/JPY as our short vehicle to capture a Euro pullback.</div><div></div><div>We are alert to Euro shakeout risk given overly bullish positioning and watching momentum below trendline. This would surprise the dollar bears if positioning is squeezed.</div><div></div><div>DXY rally call from 92 to 95.00/80 in what is touted as a counter trend bounce sequence with risk of a sharper rise in October on risk aversion and support stemming from bull divergence. Macro posture is to sell the USD into October strength.</div><div></div><div>Gold is seeing a c wave decline tied to a stronger USD and questions over QE.  We view weakness as a buying opportunity near 1,850 and 1,800. Gold is expected to be able to shrug off a stronger dollar with market volatility becoming the primary driver in October. </div>

DXY rise is gaining traction after the Euro broke below 1.18 trendline support per our fade call from 1.20 to 1.15. Used Euro/JPY as our short vehicle to capture a Euro pullback.We are alert to Euro shakeout risk given overly bullish positioning and watching momentum below trendline. This would surprise the dollar bears if positioning is squeezed.DXY rally call from 92 to 95.00/80 in what is touted as a counter trend bounce sequence with risk of a sharper rise in October on risk aversion and support stemming from bull divergence. Macro posture is to sell the USD into October strength.Gold is seeing a c wave decline tied to a stronger USD and questions over QE.  We view weakness as a buying opportunity near 1,850 and 1,800. Gold is expected to be able to shrug off a stronger dollar with market volatility becoming the primary driver in October. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/u-s-dollar-index-usdx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26018:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)</a> is ripe for a squeeze higher given elevated short positioning and signs of downside exhaustion in the form of a descending bull wedge associated with cycle lows. Positioning risk with the market short and risk of an upside surprise tied to risk aversion is now growing.</p><p>DXY – Call was to buy the DXY near the 92.00/91.60 low zone as the bullish wedge matures. 93.50 and 94, the resistance to clear to reach for 95.00 with risk to 95.80. RSI new point of bull divergence stands out and has now cleared trendline resistance that will lead a DXY price break higher above 93.50. Tactical bottoming bias for the USD into oversold readings with consensus USD bearish. </p><div>
<div>Tactical: Bullish.</div>
<div>Macro: Remains bearish to sell a bounce sequence.</div>
<div>Conviction: USD rally on bull wedge patterns with divergence likely to surprise to the upside given USD bear positioning.</div>
</div>

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY) is ripe for a squeeze higher given elevated short positioning and signs of downside exhaustion in the form of a descending bull wedge associated with cycle lows. Positioning risk with the market short and risk of an upside surprise tied to risk aversion is now growing.DXY – Call was to buy the DXY near the 92.00/91.60 low zone as the bullish wedge matures. 93.50 and 94, the resistance to clear to reach for 95.00 with risk to 95.80. RSI new point of bull divergence stands out and has now cleared trendline resistance that will lead a DXY price break higher above 93.50. Tactical bottoming bias for the USD into oversold readings with consensus USD bearish. 
Tactical: Bullish.
Macro: Remains bearish to sell a bounce sequence.
Conviction: USD rally on bull wedge patterns with divergence likely to surprise to the upside given USD bear positioning.


Trading a USD Short Squeeze, Then Re Short

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

FX & Rates

<p>In the past few weeks, leading strategists have been pointing to underlying shifts in FX positioning going into the US elections, with anomalous USD/CNH positioning for November and increasingly selective USD/Asia shorts, all in the context of record short net USD positioning at -2.5x STDEVs.  TMI similarly identified an underlying shift to neutral from extreme sentiment readings in CNY &amp; DXY across our indicators, which we quantify and chart below.</p>

In the past few weeks, leading strategists have been pointing to underlying shifts in FX positioning going into the US elections, with anomalous USD/CNH positioning for November and increasingly selective USD/Asia shorts, all in the context of record short net USD positioning at -2.5x STDEVs.  TMI similarly identified an underlying shift to neutral from extreme sentiment readings in CNY &amp; DXY across our indicators, which we quantify and chart below.

TMI Snapshot: Text Mining Sees USD/CNY & DXY Sentiment Shift To Neutral After Extremes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<p>The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s <strong>EURO STOXX 50</strong> and Japan’s <strong>TOPIX </strong>have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: <strong>Services, Communications, Industrials, </strong>and <strong>Transportation.</strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Capital is quitting the US dollar, with Europe the main host for these outflows</li>
<li>Latest outflows represent a structural unwind of the 2012-19 capital surge into the USD</li>
<li>US dollar trade-weighted index could easily slide another 10%. 20% is possible</li>
<li>Gold and (to lesser extent) Euro are main beneficiaries. Gold could test US$2500/oz.</li>
</ul>


Capital is quitting the US dollar, with Europe the main host for these outflows
Latest outflows represent a structural unwind of the 2012-19 capital surge into the USD
US dollar trade-weighted index could easily slide another 10%. 20% is possible
Gold and (to lesser extent) Euro are main beneficiaries. Gold could test US$2500/oz.


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Risk Warnings and 1,850 Gold Buy Zone

DXY rise is gaining traction after the Euro broke below 1.18 trendline support per our fade call from 1.20 to 1.15. DXY rally call from 92 to...

Thomas Schroeder

Trading a USD Short Squeeze, Then Re Short

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY) is ripe for a squeeze higher given elevated short positioning and signs of downside exhaustion in the form of a...

Thomas Schroeder

TMI Snapshot: Text Mining Sees USD/CNY & DXY Sentiment Shift To Neutral After Extremes

In recent weeks, leading FX strategists have noted shifts in USD posit

Elan Gore

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

Global Capital Is Quitting The Dollar

Capital is quitting the US dollar, with Europe the main host for these outflows Latest outflows represent a structural unwind of the 2012-19...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)