Chinese Monetary Policy – Is China Really, Really Tightening??

Population/ Food Security/ Consumption/ PLAN/ Space

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Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

China & United states / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Earlier this month we saw coverage of infrastructure &amp; clean energy themes surging across the media in anticipation of President Biden unveiling a large follow-on infrastructure plan beyond the original $1.9tr relief package</li>
<li>As the energy crisis unfolded in Texas, the infrastructure theme received an additional boost last week with particular focus on the potential for large-scale copper-intensive power grid upgrades given the extent of damage and degree of unpreparedness</li>
<li>In Q4, the PBOC tightening theme trended sharply higher on a wave of bond defaults and lingering fears on the Three Red Lines policy; though anticipation of a shift in monetary policy continues given re-pricing of global bond yields, our data suggests the theme has stabilized relative to peak momentum seen in November-December</li>
<li>DXY appears to be on the verge of resuming a downtrend; aggregate futures positioning has been unchanged for weeks, and our text-mining sees a sharp drop in the "strong USD" side of the diffusion despite the yield spike</li>
</ul>


Earlier this month we saw coverage of infrastructure &amp; clean energy themes surging across the media in anticipation of President Biden unveiling a large follow-on infrastructure plan beyond the original $1.9tr relief package
As the energy crisis unfolded in Texas, the infrastructure theme received an additional boost last week with particular focus on the potential for large-scale copper-intensive power grid upgrades given the extent of damage and degree of unpreparedness
In Q4, the PBOC tightening theme trended sharply higher on a wave of bond defaults and lingering fears on the Three Red Lines policy; though anticipation of a shift in monetary policy continues given re-pricing of global bond yields, our data suggests the theme has stabilized relative to peak momentum seen in November-December
DXY appears to be on the verge of resuming a downtrend; aggregate futures positioning has been unchanged for weeks, and our text-mining sees a sharp drop in the "strong USD" side of the diffusion despite the yield spike


TMI Snapshot: Texas Boost to Copper & Infra Themes, PBOC Tightening Theme Stable, USD Downtrend