Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.</li>
<li>In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.</li>
<li>These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.</li>
</ul>


Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.
In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.
These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.


EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Broad USD losses yesterday were curbed a little above Friday’s intraday low made around the release of the NFP, leaving the DXY still effectively in consolidation mode after its New Year gains.</li><li>Trading impulses look relatively limited this morning, suggesting more range trading for the majors as markets continue to focus on Thursday’s US CPI release as the next major catalyst. Stocks are broadly lower, a plus for the USD.</li><li>Bonds are mostly weaker but Treasurys are out-performing, leaving spreads moving marginally against the USD along the curve. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Broad USD losses yesterday were curbed a little above Friday’s intraday low made around the release of the NFP, leaving the DXY still effectively in consolidation mode after its New Year gains.Trading impulses look relatively limited this morning, suggesting more range trading for the majors as markets continue to focus on Thursday’s US CPI release as the next major catalyst. Stocks are broadly lower, a plus for the USD.Bonds are mostly weaker but Treasurys are out-performing, leaving spreads moving marginally against the USD along the curve. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.</li>
<li>Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
</ul>


Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.


Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Major currencies are narrowly mixed in light trade.</li><li>The JPY is a moderate outperformer on the session ahead of tonight’s Tokyo CPI data while high beta FX is underperforming.</li><li>Lower oil prices are weighing on the NOK but softer stocks generally—after hefty falls in Chinese markets earlier—are weighing on the AUD and NZD. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Major currencies are narrowly mixed in light trade.The JPY is a moderate outperformer on the session ahead of tonight’s Tokyo CPI data while high beta FX is underperforming.Lower oil prices are weighing on the NOK but softer stocks generally—after hefty falls in Chinese markets earlier—are weighing on the AUD and NZD. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Holds Steady as Jobs Data Dust Settles

<ul><li>The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.</li><li>The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.</li><li>Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles. In the...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Rebounds but Holds Range

Broad USD losses yesterday were curbed a little above Friday’s intraday low made around the release of the NFP, leaving the DXY still effectively...

Scotiabank

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

A consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports...

Vermilion Research

FX Daily - USD Holds Steady as Jobs Data Dust Settles

FX Market Update—The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Major currencies are narrowly mixed in light trade.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

he USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.

Scotiabank

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